If he who believes in Him is not condemned but he who does not believe is condemned already.. (John 3:18) then any other reason would be fatalistic determination.
God knows the beginning from the end in regards to election and receiving a free gift isn't about doing something that merits eternal life. Christ saves us through faith based on the merits of His finished work of redemption alone and not based on the merits of our works. (Romans 3:24-28; 4:5-6)
Believers need to repent or perish? No, unbelievers need to repent or perish. "Toward you" is addressed in general. John 3:16 reads "whosoever believes in Him" shall not perish, but have eternal life and not whosoever was fortunate enough to be elected based on God's mysterious purpose shall not perish, but have eternal life.
In context, we see that Jesus is directing this parable to the Pharisees and scribes who complained, saying that Jesus receives sinners and eats with them, while failing to recognize because of pride and self righteousness that they were sinners themselves. The main point of this parable is the absolute importance of finding the one lost sheep -- there will be more joy in heaven over one sinner who repents than over ninety-nine just persons who need no repentance. In Luke 19:10, we read - "for the Son of Man has come to seek and to save that which was lost."
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