I have spoken I will also bring it to pass
Bayesian analysis of the prophecies
(To make this easier to calculate all numbers will be simple factors of 10)
1. Jesus born in Bethlehem -- 1 / 100,000
(how many people are born in Bethlehem divided by all the people on Earth)
2. He would be heir to king David's throne -- 1/ 100
(No doubt the majority of those born in Bethlehem were of the line of Judah, but I am looking at this from all human history since the prophecy was made and for the last 2,000 years this is not true. In fact after the diaspora Jews can no longer trace their family history)
3. God would call His Son out of Egypt -- 1 / 1000
(Again I am being extremely generous in all of these calculations. Compare the population of Egypt about 100 billion with the population of the world, about 7.5 billion and it gives you a rough estimate of 75:1. However, many of those in Egypt were born there, all of those would be eliminated. Then of those in Egypt who were not born there how many are called out to come to Israel?)
4. Jesus birthplace would be marked by a massacre of children -- 1/10,000
(How many massacres have happened in Bethlehem? Not only so, what are the odds of a massacre taking place in a small town like Bethlehem of children? In the US we had a massacre of adults in Las Vegas at a concert. We have had a number of school shootings that do not even approach this massacre in size and this is despite the population being far greater than it was at the time of Jesus. Not only so but the massacre would have to be at the same time of Jesus otherwise it wouldn't have been a sign)
5. He would speak in parables -- 1 / 1,000
(We have had many great leaders, how many have spoken in parables? There are currently 7.5 billion people on this earth, do you think 7.5 million speak in parables? There have been a few philosophers who have, but for the most part other than Christian pastors expounding on Jesus' parables this is rare).
6. Messiah's price for betrayal would be 30 pieces of silver and used to buy the potter's field -- 1/1,000,000
(I suspect the odds are less than this but I am using a million as my limit for extremely specific and rare prophecies. Yes, 30 pieces of silver was a set price in Israel, yet how many of those who got this money would have used it to buy a potter's field? This might be the only time in history so I am being extremely generous).
7. Messiah's hands and feet would be pierced. -- 1/100,000
(People getting murdered or tortured is not this rare, however, this is a very specific torture. It might take place in addition to crucifixion, yet it would be very unique. Pulling fingernails, waterboarding, etc. are all examples of torture. Never heard of them piercing hands and feet in Gitmo or some other place of torture. Still crucifixion was practiced for a brief time in history but even then I suspect it was used on less than 1 in a 100 in the Roman Empire. So then it was only used on a portion of the world's population for a small portion of the world's history.)
8. Soldiers would gamble for Messiah's clothes -- 1 / 100
(Soldiers would apparently divide up the belongings of those they crucified. However, this coat was of very high quality which is why they didn't want to divide it up. I suspect that is rare among those being crucified, however I am going to include the prophecy that his bones will not be broken in this number and that he would be given vinegar to drink).
9. He would be buried with the rich. -- 1/10
(I have already factored in the odds on crucifixion, I suspect the odds of someone being crucified and buried with the rich is much bigger. My point here is that the rich represent 10% so you have a 1/10 odds of being buried with them).
Total odds of these 9 points taking place
1/10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
How big is that number? Imagine you had 1,000 containers the size of the earth. You filled each container with dice, and every one of these was a cubic centimeter. One of these dice is marked. What are the odds of finding that particular die?
Isaiah 46:8 Remember this, and [a]show yourselves men; bring it again to mind, O ye transgressors. 9 Remember the former things of old: for I am God, and there is none else; I am God, and there is none like me; 10 declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times things that are not yet done; saying, My counsel shall stand, and I will do all my pleasure; 11 calling a ravenous bird from the east, the man of my counsel from a far country; yea, I have spoken, I will also bring it to pass; I have purposed, I will also do it.
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