Taiwan Holds Emergency Military Drills, Braces for Invasion | China in Focus
I lived in Taiwan for eight years and have a very clear understanding of the situation.
Taiwan is a densely populated tropical island with steep rugged mountains. Not only so but it is an island that has been preparing for invasion for 80 years, they are heavily dug in, technologically advanced, have many solid allies in the region, and have a well funded and well trained army. In other words trying to invade them will be twice as difficult as Vietnam if not ten times harder. Not only so but both Tien An Men square and the way the CCP has treated Hong Kong have utterly convinced the locals that they would rather fight than be ruled by the CCP.
I heard one guy say that all China has to do is fire a few missiles at Taiwan and they will crumble. That is idiotic. The reason Taiwan is so incredibly strategic is because of Taiwan Semiconductors. A missile could destroy one of these factories, without the factories there is no point in invading. Besides TSMC is already moving factories to the US. Even if you destroy their factories you won't get Taiwan, and the US will still get their chips.
You can't fight an air war with Taiwan. The Tropical island and mountains gives them a tremendous advantage and with the US, Japan, Korea as their allies they will dominate in an air war.
China's strength is their manpower. But how do you land the men on Taiwan? The US recently had men that were firing 300 shots a minute in Venezuela. I think we can be sure that Taiwan will have similar capability. Trying to bring the men across the Taiwan strait will cause many of China's ships to be sunk. It is like shooting fish in a barrel to today's weapons. When they do hit the beach you can't overwhelm them because you are likely to be hit with these microwave weapons that can immobolize a few hundred soldiers in one shot.
Typical ratios are 10:1 to 20:1. Imagine China losing 20 million soldiers to Taiwan's 1 million.
Also consider this, Japan has the most technologically advanced navy. They also have the experience of fighting naval battles. In a war my money is on Japan doing significantly better on the naval war than China. The final result is they will lose on the sea, they will lose in the air, and if they want to fight with boots on the ground they'll likely lose 20:1 in manpower.
All Taiwan needs from Japan is to protect their northern flank and from the US is to keep the East coast open for supplies.
Also, if this war goes kinetic Taiwan will not only be playing defense. They have many trained soldiers in place in China. They can blow up bridges, power plants, transformers, and cruise missiles can take out dams like the 3 Gorges dam. Blowing up that one dam will flood the Yangtze river basis, their industrial heartland with 500 million people living there.
Also anyone paying attention has learned that the majority of people in China do not like the CCP. They would love to see them lose. You will have social chaos inside of China and starvation.
