The Greatest depression is coming, are you ready?
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I understand what you are saying concerning Keynes theory of normal backwardation in contrast to contango. There is no arguing at all demand is up on that I agree.
However, you have not to my knowledge made a claim that industry is the one buying up retail inventory. Coins and bars. Which I don't believe they are. I believe it is stackers who are the demand and the drive up in price.
If it was industry I would suspect we would be reading how they have to have the coins and bars reformed into shapes that would be useable by the lines and solderer's for production of goods.
So I do agree there is demand that is undeniable. Just not sure it is backwardation in conjunction with industry's demand and the futures market ability to deliver. I believe it is more along the lines of stackers or others who are looking to make a profit on the buy and hold side of retail.
If the price was being driven up by investors the five changes to margin requirements would have been more than a speed bump. Investors do not want physical, they want paper, because it is much easier to buy, sell and trade.
Of the three groups: ETF's, Industrial demand, and stackers the amount bought by stackers is far and away the least significant. Pension funds and ETFs can swallow up way more than stackers can, and industrial demand goes straight to the miners and takes away two thirds of the supply before they can even trade it on exchanges.
2024 Figures
Industrial Demand: 680.5 million ounces (record high) Mine Production: 819.7 million ounces
Industrial demand alone vs. mining: Industrial consumption represents approximately 83% of total mine production.
The Critical Context
However, looking at industrial demand in isolation misses the bigger picture:
Total Silver Demand (2024): 1.16 billion ounces
- Industrial: 680.5 Moz (59% of total demand)
- Jewelry: 208.7 Moz
- Physical investment (coins/bars): 190.9 Moz
- Silverware: 54.2 Moz
- Other uses
- Mine production: 819.7 Moz
- Recycling: 193.9 Moz
This means that Industrial demand, Jewelry and Silverware use up virtually every ounce of silver mined and recycled. This leaves virtually nothing left for investment, and most of that investment is on paper.
Total Investment Demand (2024): 190.9 million ounces
Unfortunately, the exact percentage breakdown between ETFs, banks, and individual holdings for the annual flow (the 190.9 Moz) isn't clearly specified in the sources. However, I can provide you with the stock (total holdings) picture, which is more revealing:
Global Silver Investment Holdings (Stock/Total)
ETF Holdings (as of 2025):
- Global ETF Holdings: ~1.13 billion ounces (as of mid-2025)
- This represents approximately 80% of London vault holdings
- Largest ETF: iShares Silver Trust (SLV) holds ~513.5 million ounces
- December 2025: 27,818 tonnes (~894 million ounces)
- July 2025: 24,199 tonnes (~778 million ounces)
- Historical peak (April 2020): 35,667 tonnes (~1.146 billion ounces)
According to the sources, approximately 80% of London vault silver is registered to ETFs, which means:
- ETF-owned: ~715 million ounces (80% of vault holdings)
- Non-ETF (banks, institutions, individuals): ~179 million ounces (20%)
The data shows cumulative retail purchases by region (2010-2024):
- United States: 1.5 billion ounces purchased (though much has been sold back)
- India: 840 million ounces purchased
- Germany & Europe: Significant but smaller amounts
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Oh there is a lack of supply for sure. To which when it was announced earlier in the year that they would be moving to make silver a critical metal. They specifically announced that the biggest shortfall was on the refining side of recycling. So they wanted to make it a critical metal so government could get involved and they mentioned dropping money into the refining side.
Which I believe you posted a video announcing that is just what they have started to do. So I could see perhaps that is something that could be a connection. The refining side buying up inventory from retail. I don't deny that could be a possibility but I have not read anything along those lines.
So I am hesitant to make or include such a action in my analysis without some sort of proof that may be going on. I agree with the shortfall. I would be curious to see numbers more up to date than the ones we have both reported on here. As I would be curious to see have we shrunk it or making any headway.
Now on the paper side that is of no concern to me as I see the production side is what is of consequence. As that will actually effect actual peoples lives and standard of living.
The paper side one of my sons is a futures trader. Myself I also am a options trader. So I am sure you are aware it is only like 1-5% that those of us who trade paper will ever take possession. We are strictly looking to take profit instead of possession. To which if we find ourselves on the wrong side of the trade will buy it back or roll it.
So for me or those just trading to make money it is what it is. The production side or those that need actual physical possession that side I find of more consequence as they are actually making or producing something that affects actual peoples lives.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/silver-gold-fall-price-usd-dollar-fed-warsh-chair-trump-metals.html
I don't know why I didn't think of that. Of course the government would probably make something happen to change things. Just like they did with bitcoin.
Well I am happy to see the US dollar going up, and silver and gold going down. The cost of a silver flute would have been so much money.
I don't know why I didn't think of that. Of course the government would probably make something happen to change things. Just like they did with bitcoin.
Well I am happy to see the US dollar going up, and silver and gold going down. The cost of a silver flute would have been so much money.
Seriously? Do you really think silver just lost 30% of its value in one day? Wild swings like this (silver tripled in price in a short period of time and now has lost 30% in a single day) is extreme volatility. Think of a sailboat with massive waves in a storm, like "the storm of the century".
What really happened is someone just went belly up and had to liquidate anything they had that had value. When it comes to bankruptcies the world is a bunch of vultures. No one is going to throw a life preserver to someone who is drowning.
Between Japan's bonds and Microsofts bad news it is not hard to believe someone had to liquidate their gold and silver. If I am correct you will see gold and silver bounce right back as soon as no one is willing to sell anything at this price. If you see that know and understand the bankruptcies have begun, the Titanic is going down.
Yesterday was Friday the 30th the last trading day for the month of January. So that means it was expiration day for contracts for the month. While there will be things that made individuals and parties sell off. I suspect that in the next couple of days it will come out that the majority percentage of the sell off was folks just taking profits.
Silver has had such a run up and there was a lot of money on the table and it being it was the last trading day and expiration day for contracts. I am sure that a number of folks who have been profitable on earlier bought contracts and just have been rolling them to a new expiration date. They had some good gains and they just wanted to get those gains. So I think the sell off was for the majority of folks the taking of some money off the table. So usually when it is just folks taking some profit it is not a long period of time before it can begin to move right back up.
take a look at the Moving Average over 50 days. It is $73.50. They brought the price down to the moving average, that means if you have been accumulating silver for the past 50 days everything you sold was above your average price so you just lowered your average price significantly. For the most part you don't take profits, you can claim anything you bought is what you sold so you claim LIFO, this gives you the minimum tax liability while at the same time dropping your cost average. They will do this again. I expect the price runs up to $130+ and then drops to $101. Especially when you see the cost average approach $100.
If you sell and then buy back you will have to pay at a higher tax rate for short term capital gain. However, if you own the metal you can trade silver for gold, and then when it hits bottom trade the gold for the silver and probably increase your holdings by 10% without any tax liability.
It is probably difficult for many to know what is going on in the silver market.
1. You can use On Balance Volume or "Money Flow" to determine if the price is too high for silver. These two metrics give you a rough calculation on whether or not people have been buying or selling silver. They both show tremendous buying and accumulation. This means they haven't simply been buying for a month or two, but for the last ten years they have been accumulating silver, meaning they have been buying more than they have sold and so stockpiles have been depleted. You can also use these measures to determine where they are likely to sell as the top. For example, suppose they buy vigorously from $20 to $168 an ounce for silver. But after $168 they begin selling. This indicates that their target is $320 for the top. At the same time they are selling they will be filling the MSM with people talking about silver and the meteoric rise and how people are getting rich. You can't make money buying silver unless you can sell it to someone else at a higher price. They buy low, sell high. From $168 to $320 they will have an organized exit plan to sell what they have. Then when they are out, they'll hit the market with big time shorts at the $320 level and send the price plummeting. As the price collapses all those who bought on margin will be forced to sell, and soon many others will flee. They can bring price all the way back to $168 where they will then want to buy as people sell to them.
Which brings up the second question, if everyone is buying how do they force the price to drop by 34% in almost a single trade? The secret is to sell a very large order using "All or None" and you sell it at the market. You can only buy it if you buy the whole trade and few there are that can afford to do that. Imagine I am JP Morgan and I put a trade like this that is too big for anyone to buy, but at almost the same instant I place that trade someone else in my company puts in a buy order, 34% below the market for a trade that large. The price will plummet to that order and be filled. JP Morgan did not lose anything on this trade because the silver they sold at a loss they bought at a discount. However, with a 34% drop in price on options expiration they may have saved a huge amount of money on options they had sold.
1. You can use On Balance Volume or "Money Flow" to determine if the price is too high for silver. These two metrics give you a rough calculation on whether or not people have been buying or selling silver. They both show tremendous buying and accumulation. This means they haven't simply been buying for a month or two, but for the last ten years they have been accumulating silver, meaning they have been buying more than they have sold and so stockpiles have been depleted. You can also use these measures to determine where they are likely to sell as the top. For example, suppose they buy vigorously from $20 to $168 an ounce for silver. But after $168 they begin selling. This indicates that their target is $320 for the top. At the same time they are selling they will be filling the MSM with people talking about silver and the meteoric rise and how people are getting rich. You can't make money buying silver unless you can sell it to someone else at a higher price. They buy low, sell high. From $168 to $320 they will have an organized exit plan to sell what they have. Then when they are out, they'll hit the market with big time shorts at the $320 level and send the price plummeting. As the price collapses all those who bought on margin will be forced to sell, and soon many others will flee. They can bring price all the way back to $168 where they will then want to buy as people sell to them.
Which brings up the second question, if everyone is buying how do they force the price to drop by 34% in almost a single trade? The secret is to sell a very large order using "All or None" and you sell it at the market. You can only buy it if you buy the whole trade and few there are that can afford to do that. Imagine I am JP Morgan and I put a trade like this that is too big for anyone to buy, but at almost the same instant I place that trade someone else in my company puts in a buy order, 34% below the market for a trade that large. The price will plummet to that order and be filled. JP Morgan did not lose anything on this trade because the silver they sold at a loss they bought at a discount. However, with a 34% drop in price on options expiration they may have saved a huge amount of money on options they had sold.
This sounds just like what was going on with cryptocurrency when I was mining it about 5 years ago. Pump and Dump. But, one of the things that would make a coin suddenly drop in price, is when I really big crypto farmer sold he's coins for the day/week. Some of the farmers would have huge number of rigs mining the crytpo, then sell everything. When the farmer did this the price would drop.
In the gold and silver market, there are something similar. Those who buy gold and silver, such as cashforgoldusa.com. They take the gold and silver, melt them into bars and sell it. They end up with huge amount of gold and silver they dump onto the market. They are not willing to wait until they sell it either. Selling it as soon as possible because of the volatile market.
In the gold and silver market, there are something similar. Those who buy gold and silver, such as cashforgoldusa.com. They take the gold and silver, melt them into bars and sell it. They end up with huge amount of gold and silver they dump onto the market. They are not willing to wait until they sell it either. Selling it as soon as possible because of the volatile market.
No one is going to "pump and dump" silver. First, it is not like stock in a company, it is a metal that is used and for the most part consumed. You can recycle jewelry and silverware but that is a very small portion of the market. Nor do I expect anyone is selling huge portions of silver at a discount. The beauty of AON at the market is you can guarantee that you are the one who buys it back at a much lower price. If that price is the cost average of what you are selling there is no capital gain tax, you keep the silver, and now you save a boatload of cash on your options which are expiring.