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"The Great Escape" from Qatar and Bahrain: Iran Shuts Down the "Aerial Silk Road" and Activates Khorramshahr Missiles; Netanyahu Abandons Knesset for the "War Room". —Talal Nahle
Strategic and Operational Report (Monday - Feb 23 | 20:30 CET):
There is no longer room for doubt; the region has entered the "final countdown." Indicators gathered in the last few hours paint a picture of an imminent, large-scale military operation:
* Diplomatic and Military Evacuation: The evacuation of the US Embassy in Qatar this morning, US naval vessels departing "Mina Salman" in Bahrain, and Israel directing its officials abroad to return immediately.
* Iranian Airspace Closure: Issuance of a series of new, complex NOTAMs (Notices to Air Missions) closing international air routes and disabling radars/navigational aids, effectively turning Iranian skies into a "black hole" for civil aviation.
* Nuclear Alert Status: The IRGC is conducting ballistic maneuvers in Khorramshahr (possessing missiles capable of striking Israel and Europe), while Washington deploys its fourth nuclear reconnaissance aircraft (RC-135W) from Japan.
Detailed situational analysis based on the latest data:
I. NOTAM Analysis (Feb 23 Update): "Lights Out"
New data reveals that Iran is "blinding" its airspace in preparation for engagement:
* Closure of International Routes (A3707/A3708): Closure of Route (N39) and Routes (G208/L125) until March 2026. This severs the "Aerial Silk Road" between East and West, forcing aircraft into lengthy detours away from expected operational theaters.
* Disruption of Comms and Navigation (A3715/A3810/A0671): The failure of High Frequency (HF) frequencies, radars (KUSHK), and the VOR ANK navigation system is no coincidence. This is a deliberate "electronic silence" to prevent the enemy from utilizing ground-based navigational aids, or a result of preemptive jamming.
* Lethal Military Zones (OID):
* NOTAM (A0229/26): Activation of zone (OID121) up to 30,000 feet. This represents the "combat ceiling" for fighter jets; its activation implies that Iranian Air Defense has authorization to engage any target within this range.
* NOTAM (A0064/26): Activation of zone (OID125) up to 18,000 feet.
* New Firing Ranges (Starting Feb 24): Activation of new live-fire zones (B0137/B0140) in the south and west, creating a "belt of fire" along the Iraqi and Gulf borders.
II. "The Great Escape": Evacuating Qatar and Bahrain
* Qatar: Israeli reports confirm the evacuation of the US Embassy in Doha this morning. As the headquarters for CENTCOM and truce negotiations, an evacuation suggests Washington expects Doha to be in the "eye of the storm" of an Iranian missile response.
* Bahrain: Chinese satellites have tracked US ships departing Mina Salman. The Fifth Fleet is moving to the open sea to avoid being "sitting ducks" for short-range Iranian missiles while in port.
III. The Israeli Front: "The War Cabinet"
* Netanyahu: Abruptly left a parliamentary debate on taxes for an "urgent security meeting," subsequently canceling a scheduled public address to focus on "preparing the nation for war."
* Recall Order: Israel has ordered senior current and former security officials abroad to return immediately—a "General Mobilization" of the leadership apparatus.
IV. US Build-up: The Fourth Aircraft
* The 4th Rivet Joint: Washington has dispatched an additional (RC-135W) spy plane from Japan to Mildenhall (UK) en route to the Middle East. The presence of four of these rare assets indicates a requirement for 24/7 Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) coverage over every inch of Iranian territory.