GOP Presidential Nomination

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Mitspa said:
Pulling for Cruz and Trump to top the polls...hoping at least Bush will understand he cannot win and drop out.
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Well, you know that I live in SC. According to the exit poles, it shapes up like this.
Trump # 1, Rubio # 2, Cruz # 3, Bush # 4, Kasch # 5, Carson # 6. Don't know if I
believe it or not, Bush should come in sixth. The poles close at 6:00- or 7:00 pm,
if they close at 6, they're closed, it's 6:43 here now. We'll know in a little while.
 
achildofGod said:
Well, you know that I live in SC. According to the exit poles, it shapes up like this.
Trump # 1, Rubio # 2, Cruz # 3, Bush # 4, Kasch # 5, Carson # 6. Don't know if I
believe it or not, Bush should come in sixth. The poles close at 6:00- or 7:00 pm,
if they close at 6, they're closed, it's 6:43 here now. We'll know in a little while.
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The fox exit polls have Cruz much higher..that they have discussed on air
 
Mitspa said:
The fox exit polls have Cruz much higher..that they have discussed on air
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The local stations have it running across the bottom of the screen, so, I don't know who's right.
The Kasich guy, never ran any ads in my part of the state, I live on the coast, big mistake on their
part. Clinton has so many signs up, it's unreal, they make good target pratice targets, comes with
a wire stand, stick it in the ground, and fire away.
 
achildofGod said:
The local stations have it running across the bottom of the screen, so, I don't know who's right.
The Kasich guy, never ran any ads in my part of the state, I live on the coast, big mistake on their
part. Clinton has so many signs up, it's unreal, they make good target pratice targets, comes with
a wire stand, stick it in the ground, and fire away.
Click to expand...

Kasich don't got much money he's been the underdog for most of the race, most the establishment cash is tied up between Bush, Rubio, and Cruz. Which is why Kasich has been doing the more traditional shoe-to-pavement approach mentioned earlier, doing townhalls and such as sir Billy mentioned he saw.

Which leads into the interest with Bush's fate after the race somewhat. Supposing Bush does poorly and drops out that would in theory clear something of a path for Kasich.
 
Ok, results are coming in, 1% reporting.
Trump 36%

Cruz 21%

Rubio 18%

Bush 15%

Carson 5%

Kasich 4 1/2%

That's all we have as of now.
 
GodIsSalvation said:
Kasich don't got much money he's been the underdog for most of the . ce, most the establishment cash is tied up between Bush, Rubio, and Cruz. Which is why Kasich has been doing the more traditional shoe-to-pavement approach mentioned earlier, doing townhalls and such as sir Billy mentioned he saw.

Which leads into the interest with Bush's fate after the race somewhat. Supposing Bush does poorly and drops out that would in theory clear something of a path for Kasich.
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I believe that Carson will throw in the towel. Bush has the super pacs, plus the RNC, so, he has the money
to prolong his defeat. I wished he would just get out, period. I know if Kasich would walk up on my porch, I
would not know who he was. I know Bush has spent quite a few millions here, and going to lose. The sad part,
he does not know when to quit. He's not very well liked in our state to begin with. If Kasich had the money to
spend, he may have came in the top 4. We'll have to wait and see what the bottom three are going to do.
 
achildofGod said:
I believe that Carson will throw in the towel. Bush has the super pacs, plus the RNC, so, he has the money
to prolong his defeat. I wished he would just get out, period. I know if Kasich would walk up on my porch, I
would not know who he was. I know Bush has spent quite a few millions here, and going to lose. The sad part,
he does not know when to quit. He's not very well liked in our state to begin with. If Kasich had the money to
spend, he may have came in the top 4. We'll have to wait and see what the bottom three are going to do.
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Yea Bush didn't really have a hope in the first place. Even if he won the nomination most the people in America ain't forgot about W just yet. I'm not a fan of the Bushes, but I think Jeb is justified to have run to at least try to refurbish some of his family's honor. The Bushes aren't totally bad, we just don't want one for president for another few cycles.
 
Well seems pretty solidified now Trump will win South Carolina and the Trump march moves forward. Rubio did very well, kind of a redemption from his defeat in NH by doing so well in 2nd place in SC, even inching out Cruz.

Lol well even though I know there's a topic for Jeb's resignation all ready just to note here since the Bush-Clinton faceoff possibility of doom theory has officially been Trumped lol. What a great shake up and show indeed this year's politicking has been. Lol is so fun watching it with ya'll, still reminded for the shout outs to Sir Sirk and Sir Viligant no longer with us in internet, but hope they doing well still in Jesus.

Lol I liked Jeb though didn't want him as president. Jeb actually smart in some areas of government and despite some of his campaign bluster didn't really burn down the GOP much, definitely one to keep in mind in the greater game for to regain control of America. Jeb smart on economic stuff and could be a key partner down the road in the coalition to Make America Great Again, I think he should re-enter politics if that is still an option, try to nab a Rep seat or whatever would be best to utilize his pretty good record and ideas and connections on economy and job growth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=es00S6x38sE
[video=youtube;es00S6x38sE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=es00S6x38sE[/video]
 
Well, the local exit poles had it right, the big boys got it wrong.
The surprise, was Bush quitting, Carson vowed to keep on,
Kasch said he'll take Trump down. So, we'll have to wait and
see.
 
Saw a good article that I think shows my meaning earlier with Kasich and him getting results. Kasich has recently signed a bill to stop government spending for abortions, a hot button issue for conservative and Christian movements in America. The Planned Parenthood debacle particularly was and still is a hot button issue in the president campaign too. All these conservative candidates has talked a game about defunding state sponsored abortion earlier on, but Kasich is getting real results.

Kasich signs bill to defund Planned Parenthood - CNNPolitics.com
 
Welcome to Super Tuesday!

One of two things will be decided-

Donald Trump will either emerge the beyond-presumptive nominee or the scrum between Rubio, Cruz, and Trump that everyone keeps talking about will actually materialize in the form of delegates.

The future of the country and the party is at stake. Prayer warriors, start your engines!
 
Desdichado said:
Welcome to Super Tuesday!

One of two things will be decided-

Donald Trump will either emerge the beyond-presumptive nominee or the scrum between Rubio, Cruz, and Trump that everyone keeps talking about will actually materialize in the form of delegates.

The future of the country and the party is at stake. Prayer warriors, start your engines!
Click to expand...

It's gonna be Super indeed. Race not over yet though. all the first two weeks of March lots of contest real fast one after the other. The heat of the Primaries for both parties is now, and then begins the Superbowl of nerds :).

gettyimages-507342584.jpg


 
Trump won big, but not enough to indicate he will be on course to achieving the 1,237 delegates needed. Back to the scenarios I listed earlier.

1. Trump could bag the nomination.

2. Rubio and Cruz stay in and continue the triumvirate, sucking away votes from Trump and paving the way to a brokered convention.

3. Rubio and Cruz make a quick deal and attempt a pitched battle between the chosen anti-Trump champion and Trump. Ironically, of the three this is the least predictable maneuver. I estimate that the chances of a Trump nomination, a Anti-Trump nomination, and a stalemate leading to a brokered convention.

So! Not going to convention is highly risky. But then convention itself is a risky proposition. Either way you slice it, we are in for chaos before Cleveland calls us home.
 
My prediction right now is that the scrum will continue on purpose. If I were a strategist on any of the campaigns, I do not believe I would want a pitched battle with Trump though the states we are about to head into are less Trump-friendly due to demographics and primary/caucus voting rules.

Instead of risking a Trump victory, I would hope and quietly encourage other players to stay in and, meanwhile, assemble my chips, lobbying hard for convention delegates and electors. If I were Trump...well I won't say what I would do. I don't support the man. After the election, I'll wargame it with ya'll.
 
Desdichado said:
My prediction right now is that the scrum will continue on purpose. If I were a strategist on any of the campaigns, I do not believe I would want a pitched battle with Trump though the states we are about to head into are less Trump-friendly due to demographics and primary/caucus voting rules.

Instead of risking a Trump victory, I would hope and quietly encourage other players to stay in and, meanwhile, assemble my chips, lobbying hard for convention delegates and electors. If I were Trump...well I won't say what I would do. I don't support the man. After the election, I'll wargame it with ya'll.
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Lol the Trump war game is simple, just keep hammering the hell out of Cruz for his perfidy and Rubio for his naivete and both of them for being puppets. It's pretty simple. The only real threat to Trump is Kasich since Kasich has clear differences to Trump and also has a superior record, but Kasich can't go anywhere because Cruz and Rubio are puppets of the establishment and big money donors. If Kasich drops out as he said he would unless he wins Ohio, then I think most his support goes to Trump because Cruz slighted my servant telling him to drop out, which is some bullcrap since Cruz isn't even eligible to win.

I'm thinking there's really only two scenarios left. Either the brokered convention or elsewise Trump will just run away with it. I'm thinking moreso Trump will start to run away with it. Assuming Kasich drops out I know the sentiment in New England and Midwest is strong for Trump so it would solidify his support there by eliminating his main competitor. It might be a weird situation where the Wild West actually becomes the deciding factor for the GOP race which be ironic because them wild westerners are the most leftist people on earth.
 
Your analysis has a few underlying flaws.

1. The general consensus is that Cruz is eligible.

2. The races in the midwest already seem to be messing with your observed trend. Iowa broke for Cruz. Minnesota broke for Rubio. Oklahoma is hard to peg, but it's arguably midwestern and dashed for Cruz.

3. The West is politically mixed. Regardless, the next leg of the trail largely involves closed primaries where the ideological makeup of the state doesn't matter as much as the ideological makeup of the party.

4. What on earth makes Kasich the strongest candidate of the bunch? He has not even come within striking distance of winning a state. Don't fall back on his record. Nobody cares. That isn't even factoring in fundraising capability and activist mobilization.

I could see his supporters possibly breaking for Trump. Possibly Rubio. Definitely not Cruz.

5. It seems to me that hammering Trump for being...well what he is happens to be working. These things happen in cycles. Cruz had his turn between Iowa and Nevada. Now it looks like Trump has his.


Overall, we agree. Trump is either getting nominated or we get a brokered convention. I suppose I just don't see as easy a path to the nomination as you do. That and I happen to think the Cruz-Rubio duo will make for potent opposition.
 
Incidentally I'm really glad I started this thread. 2016 is the nomination cycle of nomination cycles. It started out with a crowded field, had a complex winnowing process, and forced political observers, scientists, strategists, and the citizenry to come to grips with their underlying assumptions about well...everything from practical politics to philosophy of governance.

Every election cycle is a crucible or exorcist of some sort. But this one is exception and it has really only just begun.
 
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