AGI DELAYED? Consensus on 2025? Finally, working on a definition of AGI [Autonomy is King!]
What concerns me is when can AI replace 25% of the jobs and do them better and at a fraction of the cost of employees. My thinking is this, regardless of whether or not we can replace 80% of workers this year or next year or the year after, that will not happen until we first replace 25%. These workers do not need creativity, or improvisation, or high IQ or an extensive knowledge base. To me this is when the "landslide" begins. Once we replace those 25% it will continue with the next 25% so that 50% of workers are replaced and then it will continue to 80% until soon all you have left are the owners. I believe right now they have the technology and capability to replace 25% of workers, however, it still takes time. For example, McDonalds already has fully automated restaurants, this demonstrates the concept, identifies bugs to be fixed, and can calculate ROI. After 2-3 months you can roll this out to more and more restaurants around the country. The process of replacing 25% of the workers can take a year. You have to market this, sell it, and then manufacture, distribute and help install. Some applications are easier than others, like an AI receptionists.
But I put this up because those in the know see AGI being here in 2024, 2025 or 2026. Take all those predictions and you have the vast majority of those who are up to date on this topic. My point is it will take us two years to market, sell, manufacture, install, and service these. So from this year for the next two years I see jobs in this country being replaced. We will know for sure this summer if college graduates cannot find work.
What we are seeing now is stores closing down due to theft and crime, but in reality it may simply be an excuse to go digital. It is cheaper and more efficient to have your store online where a warehouse processes orders and ships them. Instead of firing people to be replaced with AI and robots you close down due to crime and put up new online warehouses but don't hire anyone. As a result people blame politicians, crime and policies without realizing they are being replaced by machines.