Behold the Beast System
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Agree.
I use AI a fair amount in my work, I think along with what family members have told me, who work in the field of AI, is that those who learn to use AI effectively ( it is an acquired skill) will be the ones who will be most employable.
I do think AI will eliminate certain types of jobs.
I agree it will eliminate certain jobs but will also create jobs that service and repair AI at much higher pay.
My question is will it really lower overall cost.
As the retail business became more hi-tech the over all cost of labor increased.
I was really frustrated at the grocery store the other day because the computer self checkout malfunctioned with every item . I had to get a real person who works there to override to check out. They were having a meeting with others. The manager was out too.
How I wish that it was low tech with price tags on everything and a cashier who would bag our groceries. Inflation was far lower and there were plenty of jobs that paid one wage to support a family.
My son works in the field of research involving AI and neuroscience at a University, and so what I know I learn from him, from his perspective AI is reducing costs.
I do enjoy computers, I will admit, but I can so relate to this!
we all can relate to this!
like talking to the a i voice when trying to get someone on the phone..
But what about long term?
Often that is true when new tech first comes but as maintenance and replacement cost is later added, it exceeds what was saved in the beginning.
Look at the cost of buying, repairing, and driving these new hi-tech autos today compared to those 10 or 20 years ago.
As long as you do something at your job that AI cannot do and which is essential to the company, and as long as there is no one else at the company that can do what you do then your job is safe at the moment.
The only ones that will worry are those in which AI can do a significant portion of their job, say 20%. In that case they will probably lay off 20% of the people doing that job and require the remaining 80% to be more productive by using AI.
Even jobs we consider to be creative like art and music, AI can easily do 50% of the work.
Coding a computer used to be considered a high skill job, AI can do that better than 99% of people.
We used to think that things like scientific research were not things that AI could do, but it turns out it is very good at diagnosing illness better than about 80% of doctors, and that is probably the most skilled job a doctor does. AI is also extremely good at designing new drugs.
The people most in danger of being replaced will be those working for companies that are in serious need of cutting expenses and those who are doing very repetitive work that AI could learn. Federal workers for example.
The only ones that will worry are those in which AI can do a significant portion of their job, say 20%. In that case they will probably lay off 20% of the people doing that job and require the remaining 80% to be more productive by using AI.
Even jobs we consider to be creative like art and music, AI can easily do 50% of the work.
Coding a computer used to be considered a high skill job, AI can do that better than 99% of people.
We used to think that things like scientific research were not things that AI could do, but it turns out it is very good at diagnosing illness better than about 80% of doctors, and that is probably the most skilled job a doctor does. AI is also extremely good at designing new drugs.
The people most in danger of being replaced will be those working for companies that are in serious need of cutting expenses and those who are doing very repetitive work that AI could learn. Federal workers for example.
I was having trouble with payment through an automated system for a simple phone bill .
The next day, I got a human being that corrected the automated system problem. The same thing happens at the grocery store.
I wish there were more options but every supermarket is the same.
Elon Musk's Grok3 Just STUNNED The Entire AI Industry (Beats Everything)
This is significantly better at coding than all the other AI models also in Math and Science.
This does not mean they are replacing all white collar jobs with AI! I want that to be very clear, that is not what they are saying here.
First of all, this not super intelligence, on any one of these tests we do have individuals that can outperform this. Maybe there is no individual that can outperform this model on every test, but the fact that they can on one test or another proves they are not yet at super intelligence. Granted, two years ago the best AI models were performing at the level of an above average high school student. So they have come a long way in two years. Also, they have come a long way in how they train the models. They have also come a long way in the coding of the AI as the AI is able to go through the lines of code and make improvements. Also the AI is making improvements in the design of the chips that they are running on.
Anyway there are a lot of jobs in this country that do not require coding, or math or science. So this AI will not be taking those jobs, those jobs can be done by robots and smart machines and 3d printers.
Also it is like when the internet first came along and everyone wanted a website but didn't know how to do that. So it took 20 years to make the transition where every business had an online presence. In the same way it will probably take at least two years for fortune 500 companies to fully make the transition to the use of AI. Also two years from now it is quite reasonable to assume that AI will have reached super intelligence.
These are exciting times. Sure a lot of people will be laid off and sure college graduates will not be hired for jobs that were there just two years ago, but maybe there will be new jobs created. Not manufacturing, that will be done by robots and 3d printers. Not customer service that will be done by LMS. Not sales that will be done by AI as well. Not supply chain that will be supervised by AI and use robots as well as self driving vehicles.
Anyway, time to put on your thinking caps and come up with some essential jobs and services that AI and machines can't do.
People should understand a little about these exams. Less than 0.1% of HS students qualify to take the AIME and a score of 93 is considered "very good". So you are scoring better than 99.9% of HS students on math reasoning at this point on this exam.
There are some jobs where the math skill is the most essential skill, and in those jobs AI would be helpful but could not yet replace your most skilled mathematicians. It would simply make it possible for the employees you have to be more productive, perhaps 2 people could do the job of 3.
But for 99% of the jobs this math reasoning skill of AI will exceed that of your human employees.
There are some jobs where the math skill is the most essential skill, and in those jobs AI would be helpful but could not yet replace your most skilled mathematicians. It would simply make it possible for the employees you have to be more productive, perhaps 2 people could do the job of 3.
But for 99% of the jobs this math reasoning skill of AI will exceed that of your human employees.
They give you an example of the reasoning capability of this AI.
Here is the question they asked it: "Generate code for an animated 3d plot of a launch from earth landing on mars and then back to earth at the next launch window"
It took the AI 114 seconds.
Here is the question they asked it: "Generate code for an animated 3d plot of a launch from earth landing on mars and then back to earth at the next launch window"
It took the AI 114 seconds.
Who does it benefit?
I remember full service at restaurants.
The jobs were replaced by a trash can lids that said Thank You to the customers while their prices continued to rise significantly.
Companies have been telling me all my life that innovations are making the cost to the end users go down. The only thing that I saw that did that was low quality materials made by one type of communist/ oligarchy model of an overwhelming large slave labor base.....oh, and low tariffs as our president reminds us.
They put very sophisticated computers and interactive screens in classrooms around the US. The expense was probably close to $1,000 per classroom.
So who did it benefit?
You can argue that neither students or teachers have benefitted from the changes. That would be a lengthy debate but I could definitely make a case along those lines.
But you have to admit the companies that make the technology that went into the classroom, they benefitted. They are billionaires.
I suspect the move to AI will continue to benefit the billionaires and elites.
Just think about the wars in Israel and Ukraine. Because they are being fought by drones and AI there is very little complaint. Imagine if the US and all these other countries had drafted soldiers and every time a bomb went off or a drone was shot down our soldiers were dying? The US would be in an uproar. So the industrial military complex has benefitted. They can now fight their wars without having to also fight a PR battle in the media.
There is a very interesting concept known as "peak oil". The question was at what point do we have an oil crisis? You might think when oil production drops 20%. But that is not correct. The answer is when we hit the peak oil production and can go no higher. The minute that happens you cannot continue to grow GDP without paying more for oil and no longer can oil keep up with demand which will create inflation and everyday this will get worse and worse.
The same concept should be applied to AI, at what point is AI going to be a crisis for the job market. You might think when AI can do 20% of the jobs, after all 20% unemployment was what we had in the great depression. But that is also incorrect.
The crisis is when AI can do 5% of the jobs, namely the jobs that college graduates straight out of college would do. Even if you graduated from Harvard's law school and got a top job in a law firm your first six months with the firm is basically a training and your first year is handling the simplest cases. When their top notch lawyers can handle that extra work using AI, that is when we have a crisis. Imagine all the college graduates unable to get jobs. We have 4 million people graduating from college each year. They have college loans in excess of 100k. If they cannot get jobs we have a crisis.
Now they are predicting Artificial super intelligence in 2027. We are already at AGI, Artificial general intelligence. Why would you hire someone on 2025, spend a year training them, only for them to be obsolete at that point? Fortune 500 companies are not going to wait until you are already obsolete before putting the brakes on the hiring. All they need is for AI to be able to do 5% of the workload.
The same concept should be applied to AI, at what point is AI going to be a crisis for the job market. You might think when AI can do 20% of the jobs, after all 20% unemployment was what we had in the great depression. But that is also incorrect.
The crisis is when AI can do 5% of the jobs, namely the jobs that college graduates straight out of college would do. Even if you graduated from Harvard's law school and got a top job in a law firm your first six months with the firm is basically a training and your first year is handling the simplest cases. When their top notch lawyers can handle that extra work using AI, that is when we have a crisis. Imagine all the college graduates unable to get jobs. We have 4 million people graduating from college each year. They have college loans in excess of 100k. If they cannot get jobs we have a crisis.
Now they are predicting Artificial super intelligence in 2027. We are already at AGI, Artificial general intelligence. Why would you hire someone on 2025, spend a year training them, only for them to be obsolete at that point? Fortune 500 companies are not going to wait until you are already obsolete before putting the brakes on the hiring. All they need is for AI to be able to do 5% of the workload.
Re: AI.
It's fascinating as all tech is. But human beings are creating it, and we are limited in abilities.
In the 1970's I worked in tech on large systems. When the PC's first started, I was still in the industry. For that past 45 years I've been only a user of tech. There are benefits and nightmares as there have been for many decades. I just got off of a 1/2-hour call to a bank going through 3 departments to find a document contained on their systems somewhere. Now I wait for another few hours while the request submitted by the 3rd human being takes another few hours to reportedly process in order for the document to reportedly show up on my account message center assuming the site is not down for maintenance, and all works according to plan, etc...
45 years ago, the talk was how computers were going to make our lives easier and save paper. In ways they have. In ways they have not. I'm not holding my breath for AI to resolves humanity's problems. Utopia is always around the next corner. Every procedural revolution causes upheaval. Then we settle into it and the old generation dies off. Then a few generations live, Then another upheaval. Still no utopia...
It's fascinating as all tech is. But human beings are creating it, and we are limited in abilities.
In the 1970's I worked in tech on large systems. When the PC's first started, I was still in the industry. For that past 45 years I've been only a user of tech. There are benefits and nightmares as there have been for many decades. I just got off of a 1/2-hour call to a bank going through 3 departments to find a document contained on their systems somewhere. Now I wait for another few hours while the request submitted by the 3rd human being takes another few hours to reportedly process in order for the document to reportedly show up on my account message center assuming the site is not down for maintenance, and all works according to plan, etc...
45 years ago, the talk was how computers were going to make our lives easier and save paper. In ways they have. In ways they have not. I'm not holding my breath for AI to resolves humanity's problems. Utopia is always around the next corner. Every procedural revolution causes upheaval. Then we settle into it and the old generation dies off. Then a few generations live, Then another upheaval. Still no utopia...