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Lock-down breakout!
With protective gloves and mask, I am going to blow this joint and buy groceries. Yah willing, it will be my fist time out in just over two weeks. On His wings and your prayers all blessings always...j
PS...I know the mask can only do so much, so health distancing and if anyone coughs or sneezes near me, the eys will remain quickly shut for a safe moment or two…...
With protective gloves and mask, I am going to blow this joint and buy groceries. Yah willing, it will be my fist time out in just over two weeks. On His wings and your prayers all blessings always...j
PS...I know the mask can only do so much, so health distancing and if anyone coughs or sneezes near me, the eys will remain quickly shut for a safe moment or two…...
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G
Please share widely. (Reposted)
From Jonathan Smith, Epidemiologist, Yale U.
* * *
Dear everyone,
As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures.
Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the "literature" of social media. Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.
First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic's trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks.
Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn't have to. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working.
They are.
They may feel futile.
They aren't.
You will feel discouraged.
You should.
This is normal in chaos. But, this is also normal epidemic trajectory.
Stay calm.
This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.
This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact.
Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying.
You may feel like giving in.
Don't.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics.
While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics.
Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn't much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.
You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk.
Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son's girlfriend's mother shook hands with.
This sounds silly, it's not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical.
We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens.
Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.
In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison.
These measures also take a long time to see the results.
It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how 'one quick little get together' can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does.
I promise you it does.
I promise. I promise. I promise.
You can't cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a "little"- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc.
From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months.
This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices.
My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched' by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks.
It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn't working and become paralyzed by fear, or to 'cheat' a little bit in the coming weeks.
By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.
Jonathan Smith Epidemiologist, Yale U.
From Jonathan Smith, Epidemiologist, Yale U.
* * *
Dear everyone,
As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures.
Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the "literature" of social media. Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.
First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic's trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks.
Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn't have to. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working.
They are.
They may feel futile.
They aren't.
You will feel discouraged.
You should.
This is normal in chaos. But, this is also normal epidemic trajectory.
Stay calm.
This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.
This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact.
Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying.
You may feel like giving in.
Don't.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics.
While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics.
Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn't much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.
You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk.
Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son's girlfriend's mother shook hands with.
This sounds silly, it's not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical.
We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens.
Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.
In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison.
These measures also take a long time to see the results.
It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how 'one quick little get together' can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does.
I promise you it does.
I promise. I promise. I promise.
You can't cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a "little"- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc.
From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months.
This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices.
My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched' by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks.
It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn't working and become paralyzed by fear, or to 'cheat' a little bit in the coming weeks.
By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.
Jonathan Smith Epidemiologist, Yale U.
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Excellent post. Great appreciation from here. This is good, good advice, and on your part, Mar, a treasure discovered by your research.
Some here may say to take action against being infected is demonstrating a laack of faith. I ask these weak minded individuals, would anyone ever walk up and embrace a leper?
All blessings in Jesus-Yeshua dear Mar...
Some here may say to take action against being infected is demonstrating a laack of faith. I ask these weak minded individuals, would anyone ever walk up and embrace a leper?
All blessings in Jesus-Yeshua dear Mar...
Thank you. It was passed on by a classmate. We hope more get to read and understand why we have to be locked down, as the Noah family was in their time!
How true God's word remains to be.. that we should work for the night is coming, when man's work is done.. that we should have oil in our lamps like the wise virgins.. that we shd continue to humble ourselves and pray, seek His face and turn from our wicked ways-- so He may hear from heaven, forgive our sin, and heal our lands.
How true God's word remains to be.. that we should work for the night is coming, when man's work is done.. that we should have oil in our lamps like the wise virgins.. that we shd continue to humble ourselves and pray, seek His face and turn from our wicked ways-- so He may hear from heaven, forgive our sin, and heal our lands.
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Not sure where to put this.. sent by a friend.
Title: Don't waste this epidemic (Translation of an article by a Christian in China)
1. If you do not believe that the epidemic is allowed by GOD, you will waste the epidemic.
Everything happens with GOD'S permission. GOD did not stop the spread of the virus immediately, so He must have a higher and better purpose.
2. If you only rely on outside protection instead of seeking comfort from GOD, you will waste this epidemic.
“Some trust in chariots, and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our GOD." Psalm 20:7
3. If you refuse to consider death, you will waste this epidemic.
Ecclesiastes 7:2 says: "Because death is the end of all men, the living will take it to heart." If you don't want to think about it, how can you take it to heart. Psalm 90:12 says, "Teach us how to number our days so that we may get a heart of wisdom.”
4. If you only want the epidemic to stop as soon as possible, but just to live a normal life without seeking to understand GOD'S will and to cherish CHRIST more, you will waste the epidemic.
-Satan and GOD have different purposes for this outbreak.
-Satan wants to use the epidemic to undermine your love for CHRIST, and GOD wants to deepen your love for CHRIST. If you love CHRIST more, the virus has not won. But if you still do not cherish ChrisYt, Satan triumphs.
-GOD'S purpose is to take you out of the ordinary things of this world, and to taste the abundance in CHRIST, "I also consider all things as rubbish, in order that I may gain CHRIST.” So you also know clearly: "For to me to live is CHRIST, and to die is gain.” Philippians 3:8; 1:21
5. If you spend too much time reading the information about the epidemic, but you don’t have enough time to read the Word of GOD, you will waste the epidemic.
There is nothing wrong with understanding more the epidemic situation, but you can't help. Instead learn more and lead to a better understanding of GOD'S enthusiasm, you will not waste your time. We must know "JEHOVAH" meaning, "The LORD, & strive to know "The LORD." Hos. 6:3. Psalm 1:2-3 "Blessed is he who loves the law of the LORD and meditates on His law day and night. He is like a tree planted by streams of water which yields its fruit in the season, and whose leaf does not wither. In all that he does, he prospers.”
What a waste if we read the information about the epidemic day and night instead of GOD'S Word!
6. If you treat your sin as casually as before, you will waste this epidemic.
Are you still tolerating sin, just like when the epidemic didn't come? The epidemic is used to destroy the desire for sin: pride, greed, hatred, irritability, laziness, procrastination ... all these are enemies to attack.
Don't just think about fighting the epidemic, but think about fighting your lust together with the epidemic. "For what does it profit a man if he gains the whole world and lose himself or be cast away?” Luke 9:25
7. If you do not make good use of this epidemic and make it an opportunity to witness to the true and glorious CHRIST, you are wasting this epidemic.
Christians do not appear by accident anywhere. GOD has a purpose for all Christians in any situation.
Think of what JESUS said: "They will lay their hands on you and persecute you, delivering you up to the synagogues and prisons, and you will be brought before kings and governors for my name’s sake.” Luke 21: 12-13
Therefore, the epidemic is also a good opportunity to witness for the glory of GOD. Remember: you are not alone. "My GOD will supply every need of yours according to his riches in glory in CHRIST JESUS.” Philippians 4:19
Amen. Glory to our exalted LORD GOD!
Title: Don't waste this epidemic (Translation of an article by a Christian in China)
1. If you do not believe that the epidemic is allowed by GOD, you will waste the epidemic.
Everything happens with GOD'S permission. GOD did not stop the spread of the virus immediately, so He must have a higher and better purpose.
2. If you only rely on outside protection instead of seeking comfort from GOD, you will waste this epidemic.
“Some trust in chariots, and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our GOD." Psalm 20:7
3. If you refuse to consider death, you will waste this epidemic.
Ecclesiastes 7:2 says: "Because death is the end of all men, the living will take it to heart." If you don't want to think about it, how can you take it to heart. Psalm 90:12 says, "Teach us how to number our days so that we may get a heart of wisdom.”
4. If you only want the epidemic to stop as soon as possible, but just to live a normal life without seeking to understand GOD'S will and to cherish CHRIST more, you will waste the epidemic.
-Satan and GOD have different purposes for this outbreak.
-Satan wants to use the epidemic to undermine your love for CHRIST, and GOD wants to deepen your love for CHRIST. If you love CHRIST more, the virus has not won. But if you still do not cherish ChrisYt, Satan triumphs.
-GOD'S purpose is to take you out of the ordinary things of this world, and to taste the abundance in CHRIST, "I also consider all things as rubbish, in order that I may gain CHRIST.” So you also know clearly: "For to me to live is CHRIST, and to die is gain.” Philippians 3:8; 1:21
5. If you spend too much time reading the information about the epidemic, but you don’t have enough time to read the Word of GOD, you will waste the epidemic.
There is nothing wrong with understanding more the epidemic situation, but you can't help. Instead learn more and lead to a better understanding of GOD'S enthusiasm, you will not waste your time. We must know "JEHOVAH" meaning, "The LORD, & strive to know "The LORD." Hos. 6:3. Psalm 1:2-3 "Blessed is he who loves the law of the LORD and meditates on His law day and night. He is like a tree planted by streams of water which yields its fruit in the season, and whose leaf does not wither. In all that he does, he prospers.”
What a waste if we read the information about the epidemic day and night instead of GOD'S Word!
6. If you treat your sin as casually as before, you will waste this epidemic.
Are you still tolerating sin, just like when the epidemic didn't come? The epidemic is used to destroy the desire for sin: pride, greed, hatred, irritability, laziness, procrastination ... all these are enemies to attack.
Don't just think about fighting the epidemic, but think about fighting your lust together with the epidemic. "For what does it profit a man if he gains the whole world and lose himself or be cast away?” Luke 9:25
7. If you do not make good use of this epidemic and make it an opportunity to witness to the true and glorious CHRIST, you are wasting this epidemic.
Christians do not appear by accident anywhere. GOD has a purpose for all Christians in any situation.
Think of what JESUS said: "They will lay their hands on you and persecute you, delivering you up to the synagogues and prisons, and you will be brought before kings and governors for my name’s sake.” Luke 21: 12-13
Therefore, the epidemic is also a good opportunity to witness for the glory of GOD. Remember: you are not alone. "My GOD will supply every need of yours according to his riches in glory in CHRIST JESUS.” Philippians 4:19
Amen. Glory to our exalted LORD GOD!
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Confessing I do follow news on the covid19, I also ask others not to recite facts and figures. My main thoughts do go to Jesus-Yeshua, and I am comforted totally. I could not have said this better. As a matter of fact, I could not have said this, but I believe it all. Thank you Mar for passing this on, it is truly edifying and uplifting. All love in Yeshua...j
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Children talking; " Did you know that when you cough you should ccover your mouth because germs can travel twenty-five miles from a cough?!" This I heard when I was not yet in kindergarten, and I always went by it. Now when I say I follow it, I really do not believe it, but covering the mouth when folsk are near is always a good practice. hmmmmm, twenty -five miles, wow!
As for the pollen, I believe it, and even farther than that…………………..I have the allergies to prove it….
As for the pollen, I believe it, and even farther than that…………………..I have the allergies to prove it….