Bunker Busters and Kinetic Strikes
These target physical infrastructure, like antennas, power supplies, or bunker entrances, to permanently cut comms:In 2025, US B-2 bombers dropped 12-14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (30,000-pound bunker busters) on sites like Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, damaging but not always fully destroying deeply buried facilities.
The strikes occurred in a single ~25-minute window, but assessments vary: Some claim years-long setbacks, while others note surviving centrifuges and uncertain comms impact.
For comms-specific targets, strikes degraded air defenses and C2, allowing Israel to kill high-level officials and disrupt coordination.
However, bunkers like Fordow (buried under mountains) require multiple hits for penetration, and comms might use buried cables resistant to initial blasts.
Timeframe: Physical strikes can achieve immediate local severance (e.g., destroying surface relays), but full network isolation might need 3-7 days of follow-up ops to hit redundancies, as in the 2025 war where Iran's military was degraded over 12 days.
Combined Effects and Path to DefeatIntegrated timeline: Cyber could create initial blackouts in hours, clearing paths for bunker busters to strike in days 1-2. Sustained ops might sever 80-90% of comms in 5-10 days, but "all" is unlikely without ground forces or total infrastructure collapse.
The 2025 conflict showed rapid degradation leading to a ceasefire, not total defeat—Iran retained capabilities despite losses.
Defeat in weeks? Without comms, coordination falters, leading to fragmented resistance and potential collapse in 2-4 weeks, as you suggest. Experts agree C2 disruption amplifies conventional advantages, but Iran's asymmetric tactics (e.g., proxies, missiles) could prolong fighting.
Real-world factors like escalation risks or international intervention could alter this.
These target physical infrastructure, like antennas, power supplies, or bunker entrances, to permanently cut comms:In 2025, US B-2 bombers dropped 12-14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (30,000-pound bunker busters) on sites like Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, damaging but not always fully destroying deeply buried facilities.
The strikes occurred in a single ~25-minute window, but assessments vary: Some claim years-long setbacks, while others note surviving centrifuges and uncertain comms impact.
For comms-specific targets, strikes degraded air defenses and C2, allowing Israel to kill high-level officials and disrupt coordination.
However, bunkers like Fordow (buried under mountains) require multiple hits for penetration, and comms might use buried cables resistant to initial blasts.
Timeframe: Physical strikes can achieve immediate local severance (e.g., destroying surface relays), but full network isolation might need 3-7 days of follow-up ops to hit redundancies, as in the 2025 war where Iran's military was degraded over 12 days.
Combined Effects and Path to DefeatIntegrated timeline: Cyber could create initial blackouts in hours, clearing paths for bunker busters to strike in days 1-2. Sustained ops might sever 80-90% of comms in 5-10 days, but "all" is unlikely without ground forces or total infrastructure collapse.
The 2025 conflict showed rapid degradation leading to a ceasefire, not total defeat—Iran retained capabilities despite losses.
Defeat in weeks? Without comms, coordination falters, leading to fragmented resistance and potential collapse in 2-4 weeks, as you suggest. Experts agree C2 disruption amplifies conventional advantages, but Iran's asymmetric tactics (e.g., proxies, missiles) could prolong fighting.
Real-world factors like escalation risks or international intervention could alter this.
Shia-Led / Iran-Aligned Bloc
