A major flaw in our evaluation of AI
Right now we are evaluating AI on 20 or more separate areas. So we might be comparing to to all lawyers on an exam for lawyers and it is scoring in the top 10%. So you erroneously think that 10% of lawyers can compete with AI. But it is also scoring in the top 10% for a test for doctors and in the top 10% for a test for mathematicians. I doubt even 1% of people could compare with that and that knowledge would certainly be useful. For example, imagine a lawyer who can also score in the top 10% of a test for CPA's. If you have a case involving embezzlement, that would be useful. If you have a case involving a doctor, or statistical analysis or whatever. In every possible case the law is not the only knowledge useful to a lawyer, they need to understand other subjects as well.
Right now we consider the top 2% on IQ tests to qualify for Mensa. I doubt even 0.2% of the population could compete with AI. Imagine we had a decathlon, where the contestants are graded on ten different tests, or even a triathlon, where they are graded on three tests. I would say at this point the only things that humans can compete with AI on are single skill tests. However, if the single skill has clearly defined rules like chess, Go, Jeopardy, or screening for cancer, then AI can definitely outperform humans.
Think of AGI as being like a Go board. Every square that a human can outperform AI in is white and everyone that AI can outperform humans on is black. It isn't when the board is 100% black that we have reached AGI, it is when the board is 50% black. Also, based on the doubling of AI's capabilities every six months (a rough estimate) we can assume we reach ASI six months after AGI.
ASI would be when every square on the Go board is black.
The other mistake we make is to think the square is black or white. If AI is only slightly better than humans the square is really grey, likewise if humans are only slightly better than AI. AGI is really when the go board is slightly more black than white, in reality all the white squares are grey, just as many of the black squares are grey. But, six months later the "black" squares will be much more black and the "white" squares will have become much darker grey and may now be considered "black".