ChatGPT is an Open Source AI
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Lord Jesus we pray you would turn the counsel of these AI advisors to foolishness according as you did with the counsel of Ahithophel when David fled Absalom. Lord we pray you would use some of your believers to defeat the counsel of this demonic AI. Lord we pray that the priests in your house would hear of the counsel of the demonic AI and help to thwart it. In the name of Jesus Christ for whom all things were made and unto whom all things are we pray. Amen and amen.
AI needs Big Data to train
Elon Musk’s AI Startup X.AI Hopes to Raise $1 Billion in Equity Offering
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2023...-hopes-to-raise-1-billion-in-equity-offering/
They used AI to train itself on how to play Go and in about six months it destroyed the world's best Go player. It did the same thing with Chess. They did the same thing with Jeopardy. They are doing the same thing with drones, the military for years had people flying them remotely, but the AI used that data to train and now AI can fly them without a pilot. They train AI to diagnose diseases by feeding it every medical journal there is. They train AI to be a lawyer by feeding it every law journal there is.
So the question is, what would you be training AI to do with Twitter (X)? Twitter covers every single topic under the sun and provides a multitude of examples of how people speak. With this you will no longer be able to discern a "bot" from a real person. When it comes to manipulating people who follow a herd mentality this will be huge. All governments try to manipulate their populations, all news agencies are now in the manipulation business, and of course all advertising is manipulation.
Elon Musk’s AI Startup X.AI Hopes to Raise $1 Billion in Equity Offering
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2023...-hopes-to-raise-1-billion-in-equity-offering/
They used AI to train itself on how to play Go and in about six months it destroyed the world's best Go player. It did the same thing with Chess. They did the same thing with Jeopardy. They are doing the same thing with drones, the military for years had people flying them remotely, but the AI used that data to train and now AI can fly them without a pilot. They train AI to diagnose diseases by feeding it every medical journal there is. They train AI to be a lawyer by feeding it every law journal there is.
So the question is, what would you be training AI to do with Twitter (X)? Twitter covers every single topic under the sun and provides a multitude of examples of how people speak. With this you will no longer be able to discern a "bot" from a real person. When it comes to manipulating people who follow a herd mentality this will be huge. All governments try to manipulate their populations, all news agencies are now in the manipulation business, and of course all advertising is manipulation.
AI will replace mundane jobs
Every job has mundane jobs, think about a doctor, it may be that 20% requires great skill and expertise, the other 80% is mundane, so you could replace 80% of your doctors. The same is true of engineers, and artists, and marketing, and lawyers and accountants.
Basically anything that is repetitive will become "mundane".
Also, know this, AI is improving exponentially and it depends on the data. As companies use AI it will get more data and continue to improve, so what may seem interesting and unique to one accountant will become mundane when viewed through the lens of 1 million accountants.
In other words, today you can replace 80% of white. collar workers, a year later you can replace 80% of those who remain, etc.
Every job has mundane jobs, think about a doctor, it may be that 20% requires great skill and expertise, the other 80% is mundane, so you could replace 80% of your doctors. The same is true of engineers, and artists, and marketing, and lawyers and accountants.
Basically anything that is repetitive will become "mundane".
Also, know this, AI is improving exponentially and it depends on the data. As companies use AI it will get more data and continue to improve, so what may seem interesting and unique to one accountant will become mundane when viewed through the lens of 1 million accountants.
In other words, today you can replace 80% of white. collar workers, a year later you can replace 80% of those who remain, etc.
Wow! It just clicked!
I knew that excess deaths among those who are vaccinated is way up, somewhere around 10-20% and I knew that all the fortune 500 companies mandated the vaccine for all the employees.
But then it just clicked, what do they plan on doing when AI comes in and replaces the white collar workers? There is your answer, the vaccine is causing the white collar workers to drop like flies so you don't have to fire them and as a result there will not be a bunch of protests.
So if anyone was wondering what they would do when AI replaced your job, don't worry, they are way ahead of you on that one.
I knew that excess deaths among those who are vaccinated is way up, somewhere around 10-20% and I knew that all the fortune 500 companies mandated the vaccine for all the employees.
But then it just clicked, what do they plan on doing when AI comes in and replaces the white collar workers? There is your answer, the vaccine is causing the white collar workers to drop like flies so you don't have to fire them and as a result there will not be a bunch of protests.
So if anyone was wondering what they would do when AI replaced your job, don't worry, they are way ahead of you on that one.
The first 5 of the 20 jobs
1. He talks about telephone service jobs, in some cases they replaced their entire service department with ChatGPT. They are concerned about proprietary information being on a free AI, but obviously for the Fortune 500 companies they can have a proprietary version of AI do their customer service.
2. Telemarketers -- cold callers, salesmen -- I could see how this job will be completely replaced by AI. What you need for AI is a lot of data, imagine how many phone calls they have recorded that AI could train on. Now I suspect the Fortune 500 companies wouldn't simply eliminate their entire sales force, but you could see them replacing 50% in one year and then as they get more confidence going to 80% AI and then 95% AI.
Key point right now is that we should be focusing on new hires instead of a guy with 20 years experience. New hires have the highest training costs and the most risk. If AI is already better than 90% of your new hires why even risk it. So the real concern is not pink slips, but companies simply not hiring. This will show up in China and India first. Think about all these young college grads in China saying it is impossible to get a job, I think this may be the canary in the coal mine.
3. Translation -- Here is where we will see massive layoffs. You take one really competent person, they can now do the work of ten or twenty people if you give them AI. If a company has a large team of translators, let's say 100, you could easily reduce this to your 10 best with the expectation that five of them would retire in the next two years. A lot of translation is not some linguistic work of art. Imagine the cops pick up someone who isn't speaking english, they have AI immediately detecting the language, translating the guys responses and translating their words to him. Or a restaurant translating the menu to tourists, etc. etc. One application is dubbing a video with any language. Now it is easy to see that if this application is free we will see much more dubbing than ever before, but the downside of it being free is that all that dubbing is training the AI. Imagine you have a video in English with a million views. If you dub it in Spanish, and dub it in Chinese, you might increase that to 5 million views.
4. Entry level Programming / Coding -- AI is performing better than 85% of the competitive environments. However, it is also faster and cheaper than 100% of entry level employees. It seems to me that most if not all entry level programming and coding jobs will be gone. As the AI improves at an exponential rate you will see layoffs. I would not all be surprised if in six months we hear that it is now better than 95% of coders. Again, once you start feeding massive amounts of data into it and it is operating at the 85% level it improves very quickly. AlphaGo went from the 85% level to the best Go player in the world in a matter of about three months. We have already seen tens of thousands of programmers laid off, so we aren't just looking at new hires getting shut out but workers being laid off. The idea is that you use it as a tool for one person to do the work of two or three, but by doing that you are training it and it will improve at an exponential rate, and unless you can do something it can't your job is not safe because it will always be faster and cheaper than you and work four shifts a week.
5. Accountant -- AI is very effective at this, but will not be replacing CPA's. Bookkeepers will probably be replaced, and CPAs will probably be able to do the work of 3 CPAs with the help of AI. So layoffs for Bookkeepers and no new hires for CPAs.
Also, please note these estimates have a two year window, by that I mean most people do not want to get a job if you will be forced out in less than two years. There are always going to be people who adopt new technology quickly and others who are slower, but when you discover your competition is doing the work in half the time and at half the cost you will have to adapt or die.
1. He talks about telephone service jobs, in some cases they replaced their entire service department with ChatGPT. They are concerned about proprietary information being on a free AI, but obviously for the Fortune 500 companies they can have a proprietary version of AI do their customer service.
2. Telemarketers -- cold callers, salesmen -- I could see how this job will be completely replaced by AI. What you need for AI is a lot of data, imagine how many phone calls they have recorded that AI could train on. Now I suspect the Fortune 500 companies wouldn't simply eliminate their entire sales force, but you could see them replacing 50% in one year and then as they get more confidence going to 80% AI and then 95% AI.
Key point right now is that we should be focusing on new hires instead of a guy with 20 years experience. New hires have the highest training costs and the most risk. If AI is already better than 90% of your new hires why even risk it. So the real concern is not pink slips, but companies simply not hiring. This will show up in China and India first. Think about all these young college grads in China saying it is impossible to get a job, I think this may be the canary in the coal mine.
3. Translation -- Here is where we will see massive layoffs. You take one really competent person, they can now do the work of ten or twenty people if you give them AI. If a company has a large team of translators, let's say 100, you could easily reduce this to your 10 best with the expectation that five of them would retire in the next two years. A lot of translation is not some linguistic work of art. Imagine the cops pick up someone who isn't speaking english, they have AI immediately detecting the language, translating the guys responses and translating their words to him. Or a restaurant translating the menu to tourists, etc. etc. One application is dubbing a video with any language. Now it is easy to see that if this application is free we will see much more dubbing than ever before, but the downside of it being free is that all that dubbing is training the AI. Imagine you have a video in English with a million views. If you dub it in Spanish, and dub it in Chinese, you might increase that to 5 million views.
4. Entry level Programming / Coding -- AI is performing better than 85% of the competitive environments. However, it is also faster and cheaper than 100% of entry level employees. It seems to me that most if not all entry level programming and coding jobs will be gone. As the AI improves at an exponential rate you will see layoffs. I would not all be surprised if in six months we hear that it is now better than 95% of coders. Again, once you start feeding massive amounts of data into it and it is operating at the 85% level it improves very quickly. AlphaGo went from the 85% level to the best Go player in the world in a matter of about three months. We have already seen tens of thousands of programmers laid off, so we aren't just looking at new hires getting shut out but workers being laid off. The idea is that you use it as a tool for one person to do the work of two or three, but by doing that you are training it and it will improve at an exponential rate, and unless you can do something it can't your job is not safe because it will always be faster and cheaper than you and work four shifts a week.
5. Accountant -- AI is very effective at this, but will not be replacing CPA's. Bookkeepers will probably be replaced, and CPAs will probably be able to do the work of 3 CPAs with the help of AI. So layoffs for Bookkeepers and no new hires for CPAs.
Also, please note these estimates have a two year window, by that I mean most people do not want to get a job if you will be forced out in less than two years. There are always going to be people who adopt new technology quickly and others who are slower, but when you discover your competition is doing the work in half the time and at half the cost you will have to adapt or die.
More Jobs that AI will take
Tax Preparers -- There are 269,000 people employed in the tax preparation business. It may be if you are a billionaire you aren't interested in using AI, but it is hard to believe that a CPA doing taxes for billionaires wouldn't use AI. But for the vast majority of the population I suspect AI will replace them. This could replace 130,000 people by the end of 2024. Doesn't mean it will but it does mean the pressure will be on to replace them with AI.
Traditional security roles -- AI can sift through large amounts of data, it can stay on top of cyber security, it can identify faces on camera and match them with known threats. It can replace people who do these jobs or do jobs that no one is doing right now but making a city or company much more secure as a result. Also they have robots that can patrol the halls for abnormalities (doors propped open, etc) and with each person they see they can identify them by face and ask to see their ID badge. Think of it as cameras on rollers, which eliminates the threat of a thief or crook disabling a camera. Also, for many large office buildings it is hard to have people who man the cameras and walk the floors. This would enable a small team to do much more. Also, imagine you have a bank of cameras and it is hard to focus on any one screen, but AI could alert you to a particular screen if it notices something, like having a very alert copilot. Also, suppose you go to the bathroom, the AI is still monitoring what is going on. AI could be programmed to send you an alert to your phone and if you don't respond within 5 minutes to send the alert to the police. It is estimated that over 5 million people work in cyber security worldwide, with AI you can probably replace 2 million people this year. Just because they have the capability to doesn't mean they will. What is far more likely is they buy AI to provide cyber security and use it for a year before they eliminate 40% of the staff. There are 20 million security guards worldwide. That can probably be reduced by 10-20% this year, the only real issue is cost. So that is 2-4 million jobs eliminated.
Taxi drivers -- we have 284,000 taxi drivers in the US. I suspect that every one of them can be replaced, though I doubt that will happen this year. They are experimenting with self driving taxis and that will probably identify some kinks and issues, but the savings should be very big.
Tax Preparers -- There are 269,000 people employed in the tax preparation business. It may be if you are a billionaire you aren't interested in using AI, but it is hard to believe that a CPA doing taxes for billionaires wouldn't use AI. But for the vast majority of the population I suspect AI will replace them. This could replace 130,000 people by the end of 2024. Doesn't mean it will but it does mean the pressure will be on to replace them with AI.
Traditional security roles -- AI can sift through large amounts of data, it can stay on top of cyber security, it can identify faces on camera and match them with known threats. It can replace people who do these jobs or do jobs that no one is doing right now but making a city or company much more secure as a result. Also they have robots that can patrol the halls for abnormalities (doors propped open, etc) and with each person they see they can identify them by face and ask to see their ID badge. Think of it as cameras on rollers, which eliminates the threat of a thief or crook disabling a camera. Also, for many large office buildings it is hard to have people who man the cameras and walk the floors. This would enable a small team to do much more. Also, imagine you have a bank of cameras and it is hard to focus on any one screen, but AI could alert you to a particular screen if it notices something, like having a very alert copilot. Also, suppose you go to the bathroom, the AI is still monitoring what is going on. AI could be programmed to send you an alert to your phone and if you don't respond within 5 minutes to send the alert to the police. It is estimated that over 5 million people work in cyber security worldwide, with AI you can probably replace 2 million people this year. Just because they have the capability to doesn't mean they will. What is far more likely is they buy AI to provide cyber security and use it for a year before they eliminate 40% of the staff. There are 20 million security guards worldwide. That can probably be reduced by 10-20% this year, the only real issue is cost. So that is 2-4 million jobs eliminated.
Taxi drivers -- we have 284,000 taxi drivers in the US. I suspect that every one of them can be replaced, though I doubt that will happen this year. They are experimenting with self driving taxis and that will probably identify some kinks and issues, but the savings should be very big.
There are 12 million restaurant workers in the US. We are already seeing McDonalds, Olive Garden and other restaurants replace waiters and cashiers with electronic system of ordering the food. This provides better service. Pizza Ranch has robots that are "bus boys". They are autonomous and ride around the restaurant and anyone can put dirty plates, dishes, cups into the bin which when full they take back to the kitchen. They also have AI that can cook. Many of these large chains have the food already prepared in little pouches so cooking an order is simply heating it up. McDonalds is experimenting with a 100% AI restaurant, it is drive thru. You order, pay with a card, and then drive around and your bag of food is delivered to you through a window.
One can imagine that with people ordering food online, then having it delivered (perhaps by an autonomous vehicle) that it becomes easier and easier for AI to do the entire job. I think it is very reasonable to think we'll see 10% of our restaurant workers replaced by AI in the next two years. We'll see these little computers at the tables where you place your order and pay through them as well. We'll see them become ubiquitous at fast food restaurants like McDonalds, and others.
On the flip side cooking food will probably continue to be a job that survives for closer to five years. But not as a good job but merely someone who heats up premade packets of food.
One can imagine that with people ordering food online, then having it delivered (perhaps by an autonomous vehicle) that it becomes easier and easier for AI to do the entire job. I think it is very reasonable to think we'll see 10% of our restaurant workers replaced by AI in the next two years. We'll see these little computers at the tables where you place your order and pay through them as well. We'll see them become ubiquitous at fast food restaurants like McDonalds, and others.
On the flip side cooking food will probably continue to be a job that survives for closer to five years. But not as a good job but merely someone who heats up premade packets of food.
All administrative jobs and data entry can be done by AI.
All travel agents can be replaced by AI.
All salesmen can be replaced.
When I bought my car about five years ago I went online and I found youtube videos where for twenty minutes this guy would show you all the features of the car and then compare the car. I was thinking of buying one car but he completely convinced me to buy a different car for about 20k less. I was very happy with that choice and three years later bought the same car again (though the latest model).
People will buy things online whether at Walmart, or Amazon.com or some other site and use that to decide what to buy and the more expensive items can be bought looking at Youtube videos and this includes these new 3d videos of homes. Yes, the guy who makes the video on Youtube has a job, but he probably replaces ten thousand salesmen.
I bought my car at a local dealership because I wanted their service department, but with Carvana that is not necessary.
My point is that we often want someone to answer our questions and teach us about what we are buying but we know the salesman is biased. However, the motive for a Youtube channel is often different, where telling the truth is his angle. Some are "influencers" where they have sponsors, but some hope to be successful by having a million subscribers because they tell the truth and word of mouth.
All travel agents can be replaced by AI.
All salesmen can be replaced.
When I bought my car about five years ago I went online and I found youtube videos where for twenty minutes this guy would show you all the features of the car and then compare the car. I was thinking of buying one car but he completely convinced me to buy a different car for about 20k less. I was very happy with that choice and three years later bought the same car again (though the latest model).
People will buy things online whether at Walmart, or Amazon.com or some other site and use that to decide what to buy and the more expensive items can be bought looking at Youtube videos and this includes these new 3d videos of homes. Yes, the guy who makes the video on Youtube has a job, but he probably replaces ten thousand salesmen.
I bought my car at a local dealership because I wanted their service department, but with Carvana that is not necessary.
My point is that we often want someone to answer our questions and teach us about what we are buying but we know the salesman is biased. However, the motive for a Youtube channel is often different, where telling the truth is his angle. Some are "influencers" where they have sponsors, but some hope to be successful by having a million subscribers because they tell the truth and word of mouth.
AI Occupational Exposure
Top 10 Most Exposed Occupations
A 10 indicates the entire job will be replaced
Occupation (O*NET Code) Score Subway and Streetcar Operators (53-4041.00)10
Roof Bolters, Mining (47-5043.00)10
Postal Service Mail Carriers (43-5052.00)10
Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing (51-7042.00)10
Fallers (45-4021.00)10
A 9 indicates almost all of the job can be done by AI right now
Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors (53-7081.00)9
Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders (51-9191.00)9
Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders (51-9124.00)9
Machine Feeders and Offbearers (53-7063.00)9
Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders (51-6064.00)9
Top 10 Most Exposed Occupations
A 10 indicates the entire job will be replaced
Occupation (O*NET Code) Score Subway and Streetcar Operators (53-4041.00)10
Roof Bolters, Mining (47-5043.00)10
Postal Service Mail Carriers (43-5052.00)10
Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing (51-7042.00)10
Fallers (45-4021.00)10
A 9 indicates almost all of the job can be done by AI right now
Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors (53-7081.00)9
Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders (51-9191.00)9
Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders (51-9124.00)9
Machine Feeders and Offbearers (53-7063.00)9
Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders (51-6064.00)9
Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?
About a fifth of all workers have high-exposure jobs; women, Asian, college-educated and higher-paid workers are more exposed. But those in the most exposed industries are more likely to say AI will help more than hurt them personally
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-...workers-are-more-exposed-to-ai-on-their-jobs/
About a fifth of all workers have high-exposure jobs; women, Asian, college-educated and higher-paid workers are more exposed. But those in the most exposed industries are more likely to say AI will help more than hurt them personally
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-...workers-are-more-exposed-to-ai-on-their-jobs/
I would argue that if you can use AI to help you on your job then AI is training to "take your job". Do not think that if AI can only do part of your job it can't replace you. If it does 20% of your job and there are 1 million people in the US doing that job it can replace 200,000.
If AI can do more than 5% of your job chances are the companies will stop hiring new people. If it can do 10% you will probably see a hiring freeze and early retirement incentives. If it can do 20% expect layoffs. If it can do 40% or more you should be training for a new career unless you are less than five years from retirement.
Are the mandatory vaccines for kids that weren't getting sick from Covid but now are dyring from myocarditis so hard to understand now?
If AI can do more than 5% of your job chances are the companies will stop hiring new people. If it can do 10% you will probably see a hiring freeze and early retirement incentives. If it can do 20% expect layoffs. If it can do 40% or more you should be training for a new career unless you are less than five years from retirement.
Are the mandatory vaccines for kids that weren't getting sick from Covid but now are dyring from myocarditis so hard to understand now?
