Media failing us again, sensationalizing Covid-19

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

Before I hit the sack I probably should explain why I'm such a skeptic.

When news first started being reported out of China I followed the news....because I know enough about epidemics and pandemics to know that they spread and there's not much that can stop them once they take hold in our hyper connected world. By the time an outbreak is recognized its too late, especially with incubation time before the onset of symptoms.

I looked at the numbers being reported out of China I simply divided them by 3 to try and get a rough gauge of what could be expected in the United States. China has now reported almost 50,000 deaths....I probably should have divided them by 4 given China's population of close to 1.4 billion and the U.S.'s 325 million....but it was basically back of the napkin spitballing to see whether I should be worried.

50,000 deaths divided by 3 is about 16.6 thousand....so meh, no big deal. In the United States over 7,700 people die each and every day from all causes, so if America suffered as badly as the the Chinese numbers indicated it would mean another 45 deaths a day averaged out over a year...but given the likely 3 or 4 month time frame it would be more like a spike up to another 150 or so deaths per day for the majority of the outbreak.

Of course China's reporting is incredibly suspect, and that's why I'm now using Italy, I have a much higher degree of confidence in their numbers. But in Italy the situation is still evolving, it looks like the numbers have started to trend down in terms of deaths....919 on March 27th as I mentioned before, and 727 reported for April 1st....the numbers can change of course as the data is more rigorously confirmed, but I'm not expecting a big variance.

If Italy does end up around 25K dead from coronavirus, with a population of about 60 million...which is more than 5x smaller than the United States....so that would mean about 125K deaths, or a bit more. Of course age is a huge factor with coronavirus and Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and second oldest in the world after Japan, so I think its reasonable to expect the United States to hopefully do a bit better, maybe even keep it under 100K.

That would be an outstanding result, especially given that it was the Imperial College's horribly off forecast of 1.1 to 1.2 million even with mitigation efforts like social distancing and isolating.

Take issue with Oxford's study all you want, anyone...meh. But the real tradgey is how pathetic the Imperial College did in projecting outcomes and how it leading to the putting the world's largest economies into self induced comas.

Be blessed all....let's talk about this with simple data and facts and leave the juvenille sniping to the kids on facebook.

 

[Absolutely]

It hasn't hit at your home yet. When and if it does then it will be a serious thing.

There was one person who came back from China in January in Washington state. There are over 200,000 plus cases now in US in just two and a half months and that is with staying at home for a good portion of that time and now over 2000 deaths.

Anyone see the refrigerated trucks with the dead being loaded in NY city?

This virus spreads like wildfire and there is no cure. This virus kills and pretty fast. You can't breathe and you die alone. Your families can't have a funeral and say their goodbyes. This is no joke. Because it spreads so fast is the reason we are staying at home to prevent it.

Trump said it was a hoax in the beginning. He's not saying that anymore, but his denial of it has affected lots of people into believing it isn't that big of a deal. It is a big deal and I thank God that we have the internet and other social media so that we can be made aware even when our people in leadership fail us.

Our Doctors and Nurses are begging for protective equipment to treat patients. As of March 27th they still didn't have enough in NY city and in Michigan where they are hard hit. When our healthcare providers die then we are all in big trouble. This is more serious than is being covered up with peace and safety and every thing is o.k. It's not o.k.

"Trump said it was a hoax in the beginning. He's not saying that anymore, but his denial of it has affected lots of people into believing it isn't that big of a deal. It is a big deal and I thank God that we have the internet and other social media so that we can be made aware even when our people in leadership fail us."
Baloney
Trump did right by closing off China even though while the virus was building during the fake impeachment the dems did nothing.
Closing off china gave us time to get a few things in place.
Nobody could have organized a strategy like trump.
Thank God we have a potus like him.

 

[Absolutely]

the Washington examiner:

"2019.. Chinese nationals tried to bring undeclared samples of bacteria and viruses, some of them potentially highly dangerous, into the U.S. All of the failed attempts were stopped by Customs and Border Protection at Detroit Metropolitan Airport."

And this:
"Last year’s FBI report said in September that a Chinese national was stopped after he “initially made no positive declarations, but was later found to have eight vials of clear liquid in their checked luggage.” The bureau noted that “the vials had no supporting documentation.” The Chinese national claimed that it was “DNA … derived from a low-pathogenicity strain of H9N2,” which was aflu-type virus that killed a small number in Asia. But some vials had “WSN” handwritten on top, an acronym for the H1N1 influenza virus commonly known as swine flu, whichkilled over 12,000 in the U.S. "

 

[Susanna]

"Trump said it was a hoax in the beginning. He's not saying that anymore, but his denial of it has affected lots of people into believing it isn't that big of a deal. It is a big deal and I thank God that we have the internet and other social media so that we can be made aware even when our people in leadership fail us."
Baloney
Trump did right by closing off China even though while the virus was building during the fake impeachment the dems did nothing.
Closing off china gave us time to get a few things in place.
Nobody could have organized a strategy like trump.
Thank God we have a potus like him.

What strategy?

The Hoax Strategy?

The Learning by Dying Strategy?

The Ignorance Strategy?

The Denial Strategy?

I’m so curious, which one of the strategies was it?

 

[Absolutely]

What strategy?

The Hoax Strategy?

The Learning by Dying Strategy?

The Ignorance Strategy?

The Denial Strategy?

I’m so curious, which one of the strategies was it?

Your hate for trump has you in a propaganda mix.
Trump is doing a awesome job.

 

[Absolutely]

"Hydroxychloroquine helped to speed the recovery of a small number of patients who were mildly ill from the coronavirus, doctors in China reported this week.

Cough, fever and pneumonia went away faster, and the disease seemed less likely to turn severe in people who received hydroxychloroquine than in a comparison group not given the drug. The authors of the report said that the medication was promising, but that more research was need"


A drug President Donald Trump backed as a possible “game changer” in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic received an emergency-use designation from U.S. regulators.

The Health and Human Services Department accepted 30 million doses of the drug, hydroxychloroquine, from Novartis AG’s Sandoz unit, Secretary Alex Azar said in a statement late Sunday.

 

[Absolutely]

LEADING AN AGGRESSIVE, WHOLE-OF-GOVERNMENT APPROACH: President Trump has taken unprecedented steps to protect the health of Americans in response to the coronavirus.

• The President is leveraging all of our resources to respond to the coronavirus, bringing together government and private industry in a collaborative response.
• The Trump Administration declared a public health emergency in January to bolster response efforts.
• President Trump took early action to help curb the spread of the virus from other countries to the United States, providing important time for response and preparations.

 

[Absolutely]

• In January, President Trump acted quickly to restrict travel from foreign nationals traveling from China.
• In February, the President restricted travel for individuals recently traveling from Iran.
• The Administration put into place mandatory screening for all travelers coming into the country from Italy and South Korea.
• Today, the President directed his Administration to make general-use face masks available to our healthcare workers.
  • The Administration’s actions will help make millions of general-use respirators available to keep healthcare workers safe and mitigate transmission of the virus.
• President Trump signed into law more than $8 billion to fund response efforts.
• The Administration has taken bold steps to incentivize the development of therapeutics and vaccines to treat and prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
• Working across the public and private sectors, the Trump Administration continues to drastically expand testing capacity.

 

[Absolutely]

• • More than 1 million tests have been distributed nationwide, with another 4 million tests being shipped out by the end of the week.
  • Testing is now available in every State lab in the country and commercial labs are now deploying tests, which will help generate a dramatic increase in availability.
• The Trump Administration has released guidance on how to keep businesses, schools, community gathering places, and families safe.
  • From the start, President Trump has made keeping the public informed a top priority.
• The Administration has announced that health plans with health savings accounts will be able to cover coronavirus testing and treatment without co-payments.

 

[Demi777]

Its easy to call it a hype when its far away from you

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

For what its worth I am complying with all the social distancing and other directives being put out by our governments here in Canada....the thing is the rules are changing rapidly.

Yesterday I had to go to the pharmacy to pick up some medication, obviously a necessary trip....and to minimize the need for other trips I grabbed some additional items like laundry soap, then I stopped at the pet food store and loaded up on puppy food....previously I would have waited and gotten those other items another time, now I'm being more efficient with my time for things like this.

If coronavirus is as lethal for every age demographic as many seem to think based on reporting....my neighbour keeps talking about things like 'did you hear about that guy in our neighbouring town, only 37 years old and he died'. I read the story in the news, and its local reporting so I find it less sensational than what I'm seeing on TV and in larger media....but I still can't find any details....deaths are being reported, but too often there is no context.

Why is context important? Consider this, according to data published by the US Centers for Disease Control, (CDC) over 2.8 million people died in the United States in 2017, that's an average of 7,708 each and every day....cancer alone claims almost 600 thousand of those lives, that's over 1,600 deaths each and every day in the United States from cancer alone.

People are already scared of cancer....I don't know how many people have it in varying forms, or how many recover....or much else about the data underlying cancer statistics, because they're not widely reported, certainly not in the same fashion that Covid-19 cases are being reported.

Imagine if the media reported on cancer like they are covid-19....1,600 deaths a day, children, teens, no demographic spared....talk about having the potential to spur fear and panic....there's already that element out who are terrified of contracting cancer, taking supplements and herbal type medicines because of cancer fighting claims.

Stay safe and be well all.....

 

[Absolutely]

Just like tests for flu or strep where you go to the doctor’s office so you can get a test done, you can get an answer within minutes of having this test done,” Hahn said during President Trump’s coronavirus task force briefing in the Rose Garden.

The device produced by Chicago-based Abbott Laboratories would normally take 12 months to come to market but with support from the FDA and Trump administration, had been approved in just weeks, Hahn said.




The numbers have been incredible on testing but in the days ahead we’re going to go even faster,” Trump told reporters.

The president also announced a separate FDA breakthrough which would allow health care workers to sterilize N95 respiratory masks that are in critically short supply

 

[Absolutely]

Trump 2020 !!!!!

 

[EleventhHour]

Before I hit the sack I probably should explain why I'm such a skeptic.

When news first started being reported out of China I followed the news....because I know enough about epidemics and pandemics to know that they spread and there's not much that can stop them once they take hold in our hyper connected world. By the time an outbreak is recognized its too late, especially with incubation time before the onset of symptoms.

I looked at the numbers being reported out of China I simply divided them by 3 to try and get a rough gauge of what could be expected in the United States. China has now reported almost 50,000 deaths....I probably should have divided them by 4 given China's population of close to 1.4 billion and the U.S.'s 325 million....but it was basically back of the napkin spitballing to see whether I should be worried.

50,000 deaths divided by 3 is about 16.6 thousand....so meh, no big deal. In the United States over 7,700 people die each and every day from all causes, so if America suffered as badly as the the Chinese numbers indicated it would mean another 45 deaths a day averaged out over a year...but given the likely 3 or 4 month time frame it would be more like a spike up to another 150 or so deaths per day for the majority of the outbreak.

Of course China's reporting is incredibly suspect, and that's why I'm now using Italy, I have a much higher degree of confidence in their numbers. But in Italy the situation is still evolving, it looks like the numbers have started to trend down in terms of deaths....919 on March 27th as I mentioned before, and 727 reported for April 1st....the numbers can change of course as the data is more rigorously confirmed, but I'm not expecting a big variance.

If Italy does end up around 25K dead from coronavirus, with a population of about 60 million...which is more than 5x smaller than the United States....so that would mean about 125K deaths, or a bit more. Of course age is a huge factor with coronavirus and Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and second oldest in the world after Japan, so I think its reasonable to expect the United States to hopefully do a bit better, maybe even keep it under 100K.

That would be an outstanding result, especially given that it was the Imperial College's horribly off forecast of 1.1 to 1.2 million even with mitigation efforts like social distancing and isolating.

Take issue with Oxford's study all you want, anyone...meh. But the real tradgey is how pathetic the Imperial College did in projecting outcomes and how it leading to the putting the world's largest economies into self induced comas.

Be blessed all....let's talk about this with simple data and facts and leave the juvenille sniping to the kids on facebook.

I am just waiting for the numbers on how this is just like the regular flu in its transmissions rate and death rate.

You will need various formulas one for the seasonal flu and one for this SARS Covid -2

I believe that is what you stated, that it was not worth putting the economy in a coma since it was no different than the regular flu.

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

Its easy to call it a hype when its far away from you

Away from whom? Is there anyone living in any reasonably populated area in the world who can say "its far away from us"???

There is a northern community in Canada's Northwest Territory that is not accessible except by air, it has reported zero cases and 0 deaths from Covid-19. A 35ish year old couple from Quebec were so terrified of contracting the coronavirus that they sold all the possessions they could and hopped in their car and then drove for days to a northern airport that services this small northern and mostly native town....stepping off the plane they were relieved that they'd perhaps saved their own lives. The people of the small town were incensed....because it was possible this couple could be carrying the virus and would thus potentially spread it in the community.

This is the kind of insanity the media is feeding....there's a story in the States of a 2 year kid being stabbed because the toddler is Asian.

Here's a link to the story about the Quebec couple, the northern community is named Old Crow:

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/...zwtMd5MopkfvcaugL4jTcRal8dgDy0bWJV4euz9pZkTgg

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

I am just waiting for the numbers on how this is just like the regular flu in its transmissions rate and death rate.

You will need various formulas one for the seasonal flu and one for this SARS Covid -2

I believe that is what you stated, that it was not worth putting the economy in a coma since it was no different than the regular flu.

I'm saying that, based on the numbers of deaths out of Italy and China that it doesn't appear to be any worse than the flu at this point....its evolving obviously, and we're learning more and more each day. I don't have a high degree of confidence in the Chinese data, but I'm reasonably confident about Italy's reporting. Italy is reporting just over 13,000 deaths as I write this from coronavirus....and I know that the 2016/2017 flu season had 24,980 deaths so that is my benchmark...

Going to walk the dog...I'll add more later, be well all.

 

[Billyd]

At no time in my lifetime have I ever seen hospitals overwhelmed with a single disease. Look at NYC. It's happening today.

I have never seen hospital deaths require refrigerated trucks to remove bodies from the hospital. Look at NYC. It's happening today.

I have never seen EMTs not being allowed to attempt to resuscitate patients. Look at NYC. It is happening today.

If you think that covid19 is just another flu, and we need to just let it run its course. Where would NYC be today if they had just let it run its course? Where would the remainder of the country be if we had allowed spring break to continue unabated.

If you think that we are overreacting, get your head out of the sand. I am thankful that there are a lot of people much smarter than me working to keep me safe.

 

[EleventhHour]

At no time in my lifetime have I ever seen hospitals overwhelmed with a single disease. Look at NYC. It's happening today.

I have never seen hospital deaths require refrigerated trucks to remove bodies from the hospital. Look at NYC. It's happening today.

I have never seen EMTs not being allowed to attempt to resuscitate patients. Look at NYC. It is happening today.

If you think that covid19 is just another flu, and we need to just let it run its course. Where would NYC be today if they had just let it run its course? Where would the remainder of the country be if we had allowed spring break to continue unabated.

If you think that we are overreacting, get your head out of the sand. I am thankful that there are a lot of people much smarter than me working to keep me safe.

I am thankful you have come to the full realization the direness of this situation.
Be safe.

 

[JamOn]

Sweden will be the country to watch, they are going the relaxed approach no lock downs etc.
If that turns out to be a thing to do herd immunity I assume that is what they are aiming for quickly get the population immuned by the relax mode we will see if it works if it does I’m going to be questioning the lock down approach no doubt.

the cases has been mentioned to have doubled in a week across the globe, so it won’t take long to see a change in Sweden either it will be nothing or something.

 

[StrugglingTilMyReward]

I haven't looked into statistics or data on NYC during so called 'normal times'......how much excess capacity there is, if any...if they're overwhelmed during harsh flu outbreaks....things like that.

I do know that in Ontario Canada where I live the health care system has almost no excess capacity....in large cities like Toronto its common to see people on gurneys in the halls, and that was before the coronavirus. It was actually a campaign issue during the last provincial (think state for the US) election with our newly elected Premier (governor) promising to eliminate "hallway medicine".

I wasn't aware that Sweden was doing nothing in terms of mitigation....lots more reading to do.