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#2: Conspiracy Theories Help Us Make Sense of a Chaotic and Complicated World.
The term “Black Swan” was popularized by statistician Nassim Talib and refers to “high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.”
Historical examples of Black Swan events include the assassination of John F. Kennedy, the 1918 Influenza pandemic, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the September 11 terrorist attacks, the Fukushima nuclear accident, and the fall of the Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Black Swan events are incredibly fertile ground for conspiracy theorists. When the unexpected occurs, there’s always an initial vacuum of precedent and context as we try to make sense of how and why something happened. Black Swans are equalizers; they dumbfound experts and laypersons alike.
And catastrophic events are inherently traumatizing. They interrupt our routine and force us to change the way we view the world.
In an interview with NPR on conspiracy theories, Albert Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, said,
Of course, Black Swan events aren’t really random. Everything that happens in the universe is a result of a cause-and-effect relationship. Nothing really occurs spontaneously. It’s just that sometimes, the real-world explanation of a catastrophic event isn’t very emotionally satisfying. A big effect needs a big cause, right? Shouldn’t dramatic events require dramatic explanations?
No.
Sometimes all it takes to change the world is a single deranged individual with access to a rifle and a decent perch. Or a religious extremist who exploits an overlooked security flaw in airport security. Or a bat that urinates on the wrong animal in an open-air market in China.
In The Death of Expertise, Tom Nichols writes,
Or, in the words of Christian writer D.L. Mayfield,
In a weird way, the idea of a secret cabal of powerful men and women pulling the strings on international events (like assassinations, pandemics, terrorist attacks, world wars, etc.) is somewhat comforting because at least it implies someone is in control of all this madness.
So, when someone posts conspiracy theory video on social media with the message, “Don’t give in to fear! Stay informed!“, they’re most likely writing to themselves. You’re watching someone publicly process their anxieties and insecurities in real-time by latching onto an explanation that places themselves “in the know” of a secret plot they want other people to know they also know about.
And this is doubly ironic because their conspiracy theory’s far-reaching implications are often far more frightening than the event the conspiracy theory is attempting to explain.
Note: Nassim Talib considers the COVID-19 pandemic a “White Swan” – an event that would eventually take place with great certainty given the innumerable warnings of a global pandemic by public health experts and epidemiologists for years. In a twist that should surprise no one, conspiracy theorists have actually rolled those warnings and preparation plans into proof that a conspiracy exists. Like I said, maddening.
The term “Black Swan” was popularized by statistician Nassim Talib and refers to “high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.”
Historical examples of Black Swan events include the assassination of John F. Kennedy, the 1918 Influenza pandemic, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the September 11 terrorist attacks, the Fukushima nuclear accident, and the fall of the Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Black Swan events are incredibly fertile ground for conspiracy theorists. When the unexpected occurs, there’s always an initial vacuum of precedent and context as we try to make sense of how and why something happened. Black Swans are equalizers; they dumbfound experts and laypersons alike.
And catastrophic events are inherently traumatizing. They interrupt our routine and force us to change the way we view the world.
In an interview with NPR on conspiracy theories, Albert Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, said,
“We as human beings do not like unanswered moral questions. We want to know who did it. We want to know how it was done. We’re looking for a pattern. Our intelligence, given to us by God, is a pattern-seeking intelligence.”
Our ability to discern patterns helps us construct internal narratives that give our lives meaning and make sense of the world around us. Conspiracy theories hijack that ability by linking loosely-connected events into a semi-coherent narrative (usually through the assistance of a well-edited YouTube video).Of course, Black Swan events aren’t really random. Everything that happens in the universe is a result of a cause-and-effect relationship. Nothing really occurs spontaneously. It’s just that sometimes, the real-world explanation of a catastrophic event isn’t very emotionally satisfying. A big effect needs a big cause, right? Shouldn’t dramatic events require dramatic explanations?
No.
Sometimes all it takes to change the world is a single deranged individual with access to a rifle and a decent perch. Or a religious extremist who exploits an overlooked security flaw in airport security. Or a bat that urinates on the wrong animal in an open-air market in China.
In The Death of Expertise, Tom Nichols writes,
“Conspiracy theories are also a way for people to give context and meaning to events that frighten them. Without a coherent explanation for why terrible things happen to innocent people, they would have to accept such occurrences as nothing more than the random cruelty either of an uncaring universe or an incomprehensible deity.”
We don’t like random. We don’t like chaos. We don’t like ambiguity. And we don’t like living under the realization that we’re at the mercy of forces outside of our control that we don’t understand or can’t comprehend.Or, in the words of Christian writer D.L. Mayfield,
“People believe conspiracy theories because it is psychologically easier to believe a singular and unlikely narrative rather than engage in a hard and complicated reality where your own long-term participation is needed.”
Instead of accepting reality, we construct elaborate fantasy worlds to process our cultural and existential anxieties. The President was killed by the mafia and CIA. The terrorist attack was allowed to happen to help justify a war in the Middle East. The school shooting was faked by the government so they can take our guns away. The virus is a ploy by the Deep State to take away our rights.In a weird way, the idea of a secret cabal of powerful men and women pulling the strings on international events (like assassinations, pandemics, terrorist attacks, world wars, etc.) is somewhat comforting because at least it implies someone is in control of all this madness.
So, when someone posts conspiracy theory video on social media with the message, “Don’t give in to fear! Stay informed!“, they’re most likely writing to themselves. You’re watching someone publicly process their anxieties and insecurities in real-time by latching onto an explanation that places themselves “in the know” of a secret plot they want other people to know they also know about.
And this is doubly ironic because their conspiracy theory’s far-reaching implications are often far more frightening than the event the conspiracy theory is attempting to explain.
Note: Nassim Talib considers the COVID-19 pandemic a “White Swan” – an event that would eventually take place with great certainty given the innumerable warnings of a global pandemic by public health experts and epidemiologists for years. In a twist that should surprise no one, conspiracy theorists have actually rolled those warnings and preparation plans into proof that a conspiracy exists. Like I said, maddening.
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