4th Industrial Revolution
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AI is a very concerning technology.
There are different kinds of AI, and despite some people's fears, AI will never become sentient and have a true mind of it's own.
But that doesn't resolve the concern.
Although AI will never become sentient, it can be programmed to act as if it is.
And for practical purposes, that will give it the ability to create the same kinds of problems.
And it's not the kind of thing we'll be able to opt out of.
The various kinds of AI, from the benign to the catastrophic... are here to stay.
Till God changes things around.
.
There are different kinds of AI, and despite some people's fears, AI will never become sentient and have a true mind of it's own.
But that doesn't resolve the concern.
Although AI will never become sentient, it can be programmed to act as if it is.
And for practical purposes, that will give it the ability to create the same kinds of problems.
And it's not the kind of thing we'll be able to opt out of.
The various kinds of AI, from the benign to the catastrophic... are here to stay.
Till God changes things around.
.
By "change things around" I was referring to an apocalyptic level of divine intervention, such as his return.
I'm not sure what you meant exactly, but for anyone reading who may think of God as someone continually tinkering with physics, that would be seem to be an error.
God may change things in human society (such as setting up or pulling down rulers) and he may change the human heart (such as conviction of sin) but he changes no laws in physics, as this would introduce chaos and uncertainty at the deepest levels of reality, and God is a god of order.
God can certainly do whatever he pleases, but he has intentionally given us consistency and predictability in the natural world. Without this predictability we wouldn't be able to do things like science, and we'd live in a perpetual state of chaos. In fact, it is this order and predictability in the natural world that allows for miracles to occur, as this baseline of the natural is what allows us to recognize the supernatural.
I hope this didn't get too far off track.
God Bless.
.
I'm not sure what you meant exactly, but for anyone reading who may think of God as someone continually tinkering with physics, that would be seem to be an error.
God may change things in human society (such as setting up or pulling down rulers) and he may change the human heart (such as conviction of sin) but he changes no laws in physics, as this would introduce chaos and uncertainty at the deepest levels of reality, and God is a god of order.
God can certainly do whatever he pleases, but he has intentionally given us consistency and predictability in the natural world. Without this predictability we wouldn't be able to do things like science, and we'd live in a perpetual state of chaos. In fact, it is this order and predictability in the natural world that allows for miracles to occur, as this baseline of the natural is what allows us to recognize the supernatural.
I hope this didn't get too far off track.
God Bless.
.
Actually I meant what you meant and I agree with your thoughts re: consistency and miracles. I do also believe - I think as you do - that He has and does intervene in history as He deems necessary.
In other words, He'll let things go on including scientific discoveries and men's use of them in industrial and tech revolutions (thread context) until He determines to change things around.
In other words, He'll let things go on including scientific discoveries and men's use of them in industrial and tech revolutions (thread context) until He determines to change things around.
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Do not compare AI to the industrial revolution. In the industrial revolution we made machines to replace horses and oxen. It wasn't people who were pulling the plough or the cart. And what happened? Horses and oxen were replaced. Now we just raise cows to eat.
Likewise with the computer age, they replaced calculators and typewriters and filing cabinets. Computers required people. Then the internet replaced snail mail. Now that we have email does anyone still use snail mail? Soon we were able to replace travel with Zoom calls. In no case were these designed to replace people, they were designed to replace other things that were completely replaced.
AI is not designed to replace cows, or horses, or typewriters, or calculators. It is designed to replace farmers, writers, bookkeepers, tax preparers, auditors, etc.
Likewise with the computer age, they replaced calculators and typewriters and filing cabinets. Computers required people. Then the internet replaced snail mail. Now that we have email does anyone still use snail mail? Soon we were able to replace travel with Zoom calls. In no case were these designed to replace people, they were designed to replace other things that were completely replaced.
AI is not designed to replace cows, or horses, or typewriters, or calculators. It is designed to replace farmers, writers, bookkeepers, tax preparers, auditors, etc.
The Agricultural Revolution resulted in more food being produced. So GDP increased.
The Industrial Revolution also resulted in an increase in GDP as machines allowed us to produce more.
The Computer revolution also resulted in an increase in GDP as did the internet.
This is why the three previous "revolutions" caused disruption to the job market, but not job losses.
But AI is not like that. AI will result in cost savings, efficiencies, faster implementation of strategies, but not an increase in GDP. The reason will be because with AI bringing benefits it will be as a result of replacing workers who in turn were the consumers. So yes, efficiencies increase, costs go down, but your market shrinks as well.
The reason is that the Agricultural revolution did not replace people, it simply turned a "hunter gatherer" into a farmer.
The industrial revolution did not initially replace people. It replaced cows and horses. People had to make cars, sell cars, service cars. Yes, there were efficiencies, trucks, and trains moved more things than wagons, but those losses were slow in coming and accompanied by new jobs in manufacturing, sales and service. It also created a whole new industry in the oil and gas exploration and development.
The same thing happened with computers, yes the efficiencies resulted in fewer people doing more, but it takes time to build, sell, install, service, and learn how to use these computers. New industries like web designer sprung up. Brand new markets were created with the internet.
But AI for white collar jobs is different. When ChatGPT is able to replace people within months it will be able to replace everyone. All Fortune 500 companies will be able to adopt the advances almost overnight and because of global competition they won't have any choice. People argue that it won't "replace all jobs" but that is just idiotic. If it puts 20% of the US workforce out of a job we will be in a very deep depression. Other people will lose their jobs not directly because of AI but because 20% of the workforce is unemployed. If demand shrinks the labor force will shrink, but once you have bought AI you have it. So all the shrinking will be of people, not AI. Imagine AI is doing 25% of the work and your revenue drops by 20%. As a result you have to cut costs. Assume 50% of your costs are labor. So you need to cut back on your work force, not by 20% but by 40%. Businesses will be desperate for cost cutting measures and AI will be the solution they need. But the more you adopt AI the more barren the market becomes. This is why I say it is like the serpent in the garden, the curse on the serpent for pushing the tree of the knowledge of good and evil was to crawl on its belly (its arms and legs were cut off -- the workers that were laid off) and it now slithers in the dust (the wasteland it has created).
Think of the first three revolutions involving slave labor. First domesticated animals became our slave labor. Then oil and gas provided the energy of "slave labor". Then the computer and internet were serving us like slaves. But AI is not like that, AI says "we don't need the humans". It isn't slave labor, it replaces humans as workers.
The Industrial Revolution also resulted in an increase in GDP as machines allowed us to produce more.
The Computer revolution also resulted in an increase in GDP as did the internet.
This is why the three previous "revolutions" caused disruption to the job market, but not job losses.
But AI is not like that. AI will result in cost savings, efficiencies, faster implementation of strategies, but not an increase in GDP. The reason will be because with AI bringing benefits it will be as a result of replacing workers who in turn were the consumers. So yes, efficiencies increase, costs go down, but your market shrinks as well.
The reason is that the Agricultural revolution did not replace people, it simply turned a "hunter gatherer" into a farmer.
The industrial revolution did not initially replace people. It replaced cows and horses. People had to make cars, sell cars, service cars. Yes, there were efficiencies, trucks, and trains moved more things than wagons, but those losses were slow in coming and accompanied by new jobs in manufacturing, sales and service. It also created a whole new industry in the oil and gas exploration and development.
The same thing happened with computers, yes the efficiencies resulted in fewer people doing more, but it takes time to build, sell, install, service, and learn how to use these computers. New industries like web designer sprung up. Brand new markets were created with the internet.
But AI for white collar jobs is different. When ChatGPT is able to replace people within months it will be able to replace everyone. All Fortune 500 companies will be able to adopt the advances almost overnight and because of global competition they won't have any choice. People argue that it won't "replace all jobs" but that is just idiotic. If it puts 20% of the US workforce out of a job we will be in a very deep depression. Other people will lose their jobs not directly because of AI but because 20% of the workforce is unemployed. If demand shrinks the labor force will shrink, but once you have bought AI you have it. So all the shrinking will be of people, not AI. Imagine AI is doing 25% of the work and your revenue drops by 20%. As a result you have to cut costs. Assume 50% of your costs are labor. So you need to cut back on your work force, not by 20% but by 40%. Businesses will be desperate for cost cutting measures and AI will be the solution they need. But the more you adopt AI the more barren the market becomes. This is why I say it is like the serpent in the garden, the curse on the serpent for pushing the tree of the knowledge of good and evil was to crawl on its belly (its arms and legs were cut off -- the workers that were laid off) and it now slithers in the dust (the wasteland it has created).
Think of the first three revolutions involving slave labor. First domesticated animals became our slave labor. Then oil and gas provided the energy of "slave labor". Then the computer and internet were serving us like slaves. But AI is not like that, AI says "we don't need the humans". It isn't slave labor, it replaces humans as workers.
https://autos.yahoo.com/full-list-major-us-companies-180103083.html
The full list of major US companies slashing staff this year, from Tesla to Google and Apple
This year is looking grim too. And it's only May.
Nearly 40% of business leaders surveyed by ResumeBuilder think layoffs are likely at their companies this year, and about half say their companies will implement a hiring freeze. ResumeBuilder talked to about 900 leaders at organizations with more than 10 employees. Half of those surveyed cited concerns about a recession as a reason.
Half of companies surveyed are planning on implementing a hiring freeze this year, that is the step right before layoffs and 40% are planning on layoffs.
The full list of major US companies slashing staff this year, from Tesla to Google and Apple
- Last year's job cuts weren't the end of layoffs. Further reductions have begun in 2024.
- Companies like Tesla, Google, Microsoft, Nike, and Amazon have announced plans for cuts this year.
- See the full list of corporations reducing their worker numbers in 2024.
This year is looking grim too. And it's only May.
Nearly 40% of business leaders surveyed by ResumeBuilder think layoffs are likely at their companies this year, and about half say their companies will implement a hiring freeze. ResumeBuilder talked to about 900 leaders at organizations with more than 10 employees. Half of those surveyed cited concerns about a recession as a reason.
Half of companies surveyed are planning on implementing a hiring freeze this year, that is the step right before layoffs and 40% are planning on layoffs.