Taiwan and PRC Tensions

https://news.yahoo.com/us-warns-china-taiwan-threats-195800413.html.

Not really a huge fan of the article. But basically there's a very real likelihood of a very real conflict coming over this. Will it go nuclear? I don't know.

Should we abandon our assets and friends and promises? Probably not.

If the PRC invades Taiwan it will seize control of the banks and every portfolio and investment account in America and abroad will suffer for it. Not to mention all the multi-national corporations who have built factories there. They will lose them as this is why PRC even wants control. America refuses to sell China the technology that will allow them to make computer chips. Taiwan yes, PRC no.... Because every industry the PRC has control over they first bankrupt everyone else in the industry and then raise prices and hold everyone hostage to exorbitant prices. (If it allows you to purchase anything....it might just confiscate your bank account and make you disappear like many people in Hong Kong have discovered. )

So...
What do you think? Should we engage in supporting Taiwan or not?

I think Taiwan will humble themselves and pray like the good king Hezekiah and the Lord will fight for Taiwan and the CCP will be defeated like Senacharib from Assyria.

I would say the hardest and most difficult military assignment in world history would be to take Taiwan. They have had over 70 years to build up the defenses and they have done that knowing that China intended to take them back. They are an extremely well armed nation, it is a tropical island that is rugged and mountainous and filled with military defenses, a naval landing would incur incredible losses in these days of drones, missiles, and satellite surveillance. Mainland China doesn't have the transport ships to move 2 million men so they are thinking of using commercial boats, they would be sitting ducks for advanced weaponry.

Taiwan also has excellent allies in Japan (the most modern navy in the world), Australia and the US. That is some very serious firepower pointed back at China.

To make things worse for China they need imports from both the US and Australia to feed their people.

Finally, Taiwan has many agents in sleeper cells in China. In the event of war they will cause mayhem to China's infrastructure. Not only so but the US's "Bunker busters" can be used to punch holes in dams like the 3 Gorges dam which would wipe out the Yangtze river basin, home to 500 million people and China's industrial base. Destroying that dam alone would put an end to any illusion that China is a superpower.

One other thing, every single High School graduate has gone through military training for several years on that island. They can immediately have tens of millions of people doing essential jobs and services. Taiwan is Asia's version of Israel. The only "Christian" nation in Asia (the Philippines are Catholic, I don't consider that the same thing, but if you disagree I can certainly understand that).

For sure we should support Taiwan. China has become the world's bully, worse than Russia. I live in Australia, so this is closer to home than most. Australia foolishly became dependent on trade with China. We sell them iron ore to make into steel to build warships to threaten our security. International hypocrisy is breathtaking. South Africa was bludgeoned into ending apartheid and has become pretty much a failed state. China has become the second biggest economy, facilitated by Western money and technology. Australia was the first Western government to recognise China. I am not at all proud of that. Don't get me wrong, the Chinese people are just as much victims. I traveled a lot in the 1970's. The Chinese were hard working and clever, and friendly as well. I could see how easily China could become a world power even back then. The government is hard on its own people. And they hate the Western world, seeking revenge for the way the West treated them in the 19th century.

Before, I would say the U.S. should get involved. Now, not too sure. The anti-China countries in that region (Taiwan, Japan, Australia, India, etc.) should band together and fight first, instead of the U.S. going in first. However, if China attacks the U.S., different story.

I live in Australia. If you add all the regional defence assets together, they still do not come close to China's. India has a small nuclear arsenal. No other nation in the region has nuclear weapons.

Australia has supported the US in every conflict since, and including WW2. Some of that support was probably misplaced, but often politics outweighs the pragmatic. There is very much an expectation that the US will help Australia in any conflict with China. It is also in the interest of the US and the rest of the world. China seeks to control vital trade routes. They seek to become the supreme world power. I would not be surprised if they achieve this. Australia wants a fleet of nuclear submarines, has purchased the JSF, has a highly trained military and a decent Navy. As an ex serviceman, I can see how China could go about conquering Asia. Australia would be difficult due to the distances involved. So China would likely form military bases in Indonesia, PNG or the Philippines. Or all three. They could easily operate from those bases to attack Australia and other regional nations. Japan did this with great success in WW2.

If the US waits to see what regional powers can do, it will be too late. If I was younger, I'd be learning Mandarin. I have no confidence in the USA now. I think internal problems will hinder the US nationally. A couple of EU warships won't do much to intimidate China.

Now (what appears to be the vast majority of) Australians have more in common with the Chinese than the Americans in terms of ideology. So, I do not see a big reason for United States to enter a major war when (what appears to be most) Australians share Chinese ideology. I doubt it will come to the point where the China actually attacks Australia, but that Australia will give in to China's demands. Or, Australia may remain neutral. Taiwan on the other hand, has more in common with the Americans in terms of ideology. I believe Taiwan (and Japan) will put up more of a fight. China is more interested in acquiring countries/regions with East-Asian looking people per their "One China" policy as they believe these people/lands belong to China, based on my Chinese friend. They are not interested in waging war with other countries such as Australia, at least not for now. Most Americans now are very wary of war for different reasons; the left is already anti-war to begin with and the right feels used by other countries and then getting blamed later.

So you are an expert on Australia? You need to recheck your information, someone is telling you lies. America only came into WW2 because Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. Most Americans were happy to see Europe under Nazi rule. Some even supported Hitler. It's the US that chose to become the defender of the free world. If they ditch Taiwan, then the myth will be truly laid to rest.

Australia has far more in common with the US than you imagine. I've been to the US twice. I had no problem getting to grips with the culture. My biggest gripe was that restaurants serve food nearly cold.

Australia is a democracy. China has turned on Australia precisely because we are prepared to call China out on their illegal occupation of the South China sea. It's cost Australia billions in lost trade. It was mostly American money and technology that enabled China to become a world power now. China is already waging war on this region, especially Australia. It's not got to shooting yet, but it is war nonetheless.

Taiwan is an island of exiles from when the communists took over. It was separate until we came up with the brilliant idea of a "one china" policy.
The UK leased Hong Kong province and ran it until the lease ran out or just gave it back (can't remember) but it operated independently (and very successfully) until PRC decided that they wanted the money out of the banks and several of the industries there. A lot of capital investments were lost to the government of China.

(Not fun when your stock loses ALL value when that happens)
And the Hong Kong people didn't understand or care until the government did take over....now they care...and it wasn't like they weren't warned.
Same thing is happening with Taiwan. They operate independently of the mainland. They have significant investments by outside countries...not just the USA...but Swiss, UK, Germany, Australia, France, Japan and etc.
Because of the chipmakers and electronic making.

Silicon is refined in China mainland...but turned into semiconductors wafers in PRC. Everyone from Nvidia to Intel and Micron and a bunch of companies making LCD screens and other electronic components... Taiwan has a highly skilled workforce that makes a lot of electronic components. They even have their own powerhouse of TSM that makes computer chips. (Publicly traded company in all the exchanges)

These chips then go to other places to go into appliances and everything made with electronics...from Vietnam to South Korea and Japan and EU and USA.
Because of China's abuse of marketing...they have almost all the silicon refining in the world...there is some done in the Netherlands...but it isn't much. Everyone else has been bankrupted out of doing it. And it is a dirty process involving some nasty poisonous chemicals. (Deadly toxic to touch and explosive when in contact with water)

Silicon semiconductor Wafers are made with extremely high tech equipment that the USA is the sole proprietor of. Currently there is an export prohibition to mainland China. So all the equipment needed is on the island of Taiwan. That is one major focus for this conflict....that and the banking system which has lots of cash that is not backed up by junk bonds. Because if the resources of Taiwan were pooled together they could flat out buy PRC...(giving Hong Kong back unpurchased)

Taiwan makes 92% of the most advanced computer chips in the world. If China takes over Taiwan the US as a super power is over.

Second, if Taiwan were part of China then what stands between the US and China, nothing. Guam and Hawaii would be immediately threatened. Taiwan is far more important to the US than Guam or Hawaii.

I agree. If Taiwan falls to China what happens to the Philippines? Once the Philippines falls I doubt China will invade Australia, no point, Australia will have no choice but become an ally of China.

Likewise, at that point what happens to South Korea? No doubt China will broker some kind of unification with North Korea and Japan will be completely isolated. Taiwan is the country that is crucial, without it as part of the free world all of Asia falls into China's lap.

All the neighboring countries need to take the lead in defeating China. We hsve known for a few decades now that China is on the rise. US can help with supplies, even nukes, but not too much manpower. Microchips is not a good reason to enter war; surely another country can make them.

Taiwan was founded by Chiang Kai Shek, a frenemy of Mao Zedong, the founding father of the PRC, the only difference is that Mao was a communist while Chiang was a capitalist and embraced western democracies. Experts have already predicted that China will invade Taiwan, latest by 2025.
The conflict will happen due to the following reasons:
1. There is a lot of internal pressure on Mr. Xi to reunify the island to the mainland China
2. China desperately needs to test its military power after witnessing the collapse of imperial America in Kabul.
3. China wants to gain regional dominance in the South China Sea and would pay any price to eject the existing power in the area(US).

I hope the conflict will not erupt to a nuclear warfare because that will doom us all, if both the PRC and its allies and the United States and its allies decide to fight conventional warfare then there is no chance that China can win and the CCP knows that because of the following reasons:
1. The Chinese economy heavily relies on Western technology and countries. if the West banned trade with China it would cripple its economic dominance and consequently weaken its military because every military needs money.
2. The United States has a lot of aircraft carriers that can be used strategically to defend Taiwan from the Chinese fighter jets.
3. The superior nuclear powered submarines of the United States are equipped with hypersonic missiles which are lethal and hence the odds shift in favor of the United States in underwater warfare.

The United States was pretty much guaranteed to lose if the war was going to be fought in China's backyard(mainland) but because this scenario is similar to the Korean war where the United States defended the capitalist south from the communist North, I see the United States getting away with a quick victory, if and only if China is reluctant to employ nuclear weapons in the conflict.

People do not appreciate the knife edge that China operates under. It is a country that is really two different countries, the agricultural country which is about 75% of the country and the industrial coastline that is about 25%. They need every bit of their infrastructure to get food from the country to the city. They even use the army during the summer to harvest and transport crops. So disrupting the power grid, blowing up bridges, taking out railroads and destroying dams will be extremely catastrophic to China.

Second, over the last few years China has become a massive importer of food. This is a centralized economy run by the communists. In this type of system the communist leaders lie about how much reserves they have and instead sell it on the black market to enrich themselves. China is really on a knife's edge when it comes to famine.

Third, there is no way for China to take Taiwan without shipping 2 million soldiers across the straight. How are you going to do that? We have satellites watching every move they make, we have subs sitting on the bottom of the straight ready to sink their ships, we have missiles that can be fired from Taiwan, we have the best air force in the world which can sink the ships. Taiwan has an underground air base which was built under a mountain on the East coast of the island. The idea is if the US can protect the East coast of Taiwan China cannot get to their air force.

This is not D day, they are not going to be able to sneak across the straight in the dark, or trick us into thinking they are attacking a different beach. Taiwan has a population of 23 million, everyone has had military training, so even if you say a third are too young and a third are too old you still have 7 million trained soldiers who can repel 2 million Chinese soldiers. They have every advantage there is and I suspect a very large percent of those 2 million will end up on the bottom of the Taiwan straight.

We are too weak and divided domestically to take Xi on. It would highlight our domestic weaknesses rather than resolve them. I have no doubt the Chinese would exploit them.

There is a major issue that China is dealing with and that is power supply. They heavily depend on hydro electric, the problem is when you have floods the dams get clogged up with garbage and trees that wash down due to the flood. Power generation has been affected by these floods. Also, China wants to clean up the air in time for the olympics so they don't want to use cheap coal but they can't get enough high quality coal to run their power plants. If they go to war the situation will be worse as they will suffer embargoes.

Again, we are talking about Taiwan. They are not divided, no one in Taiwan wants to be taken over by China. They have been preparing for this war since 1948. People defending their homes and families are the toughest opponents, just think of the Vietnam war. This will be like that but on steroids.

I am speaking to the question of American intervention.

All Taiwan needs is assistance with Satellite intelligence and also with the Navy guarding the West coast and to keep supply lines open to Taiwan. If the US does those three things Taiwan can do the rest. Also the Philippines, Japan, S. Korea and Australia should see this as being critical for their own survival. They can help with their navies, with soldiers, and with supplies. You don't have to be on the front lines to be very helpful.

Not only so but I suspect India would not want China to win that war anymore than Russia wanted us to get peace in Afghanistan.

I agree with the hydro electric analogy, this is good research, it is true that China has huge hydro dams in certain locations which are very close to human settlements, if these are hit a lot of people are going to be displaced and their farms flooded, while China is trying to pull itself together from such attacks, it might as well as be too late because there is always the button of nuclear armageddon that no one really wants to fire.
The only weak link I see in the American leadership is the presidency, and I also believe the way America would fight a competitor is very different from the way they would fight a radical enemy in Afghanistan.
The United States has also invested a lot of money in electronics warfare , obviously the Chinese are going to try to disrupt the massive and complex electronic network the military relies on for effective communication across the Pacific, I believe the spending has been used to deal with every loophole China might think of taking advantage of.
Experts say that China wants revenge on the west for the atrocities it committed against it in the 20th century, What about Japan, isn't it the Japanese who massacred millions of Chinese after they took over their country in world war two?
The CCP is really brainwashing the country into a nationalism like the one Germany had before Hitler led them to their own demise.
A lot of countries would be willing to stop a regional bully from pushing everyone around, this is Japan's exact behavior prior to its defeat in WW2, They were acquiring islands to be used for strategic military objectives.
The story of dictators vs the free world always ends the same way.. Hitler was dictator, Hirohito was a dictator, Musolini was a dictator and a president who ruled for a lifetime is also a dictator, if China were a democratic country then the US would welcome its successes and cheer it on to work harder, the only problem is the CCP, you have no idea what they are planning.